MARKET UPDATE

Friday I was pretty content to hold on to short trading positions , there are some that may be time sensitive or that I think are worth taking some gains on that I may do so, of course I'll let you know, you have to take what the market offers, not what you think it should, it cares less about what we think.

In any case, things are moving along pretty quick in a number of assets, I'm going to try to cover as many as I can where I see opportunities brewing.

As far as today's action, a lot of it is being blamed on increased tensions in Ukraine, specifically the Donetsk area in Eastern Ukraine where Ultra-nationalists are clashing with riot police and of course pro-Russian mobs are doing their part to add to the chaos as is Putin, but that's another story and I'm not sure if it is really the cause , a convenient excuse or really has little to do with events, we will know soon enough though as the charts develop.

Here's what we have now, I suspect there's going to be an intraday bottom coming along soon and from that... Well I expected continued noisy chop which has dominated the market since last week, then we move to a new phase.

Imagine the volatility ahead this week as today is the lightest day of macro economic data and we have the F_O_M_C Wednesday with a lot of Macro-Economic data starting tomorrow so I also want to be careful in what is moved and when, as usual I want to see good reason and confirmation on the charts, but with time sensitive or leverage sensitive assets, it might be wise to make some moves considering some of the opportunities today.

I have to switch layouts and take a look at Leading Indicators, I'll let you know if anything there is pointing or screaming at any particular signals in the market, but so far this looks like increased chop from last week.

In this environment the 3C charts can move so fast that sometimes thay've already answered open questions by the time I capture, upload and post them so I may add commentary without charts or too many, but I do think a visual is helpful.

 SPY 1 min is in line with price action, this hasn't changed much

However there are certain charts just after that refuse to confirm the downside price action like this 2 min chart.

 the 3 and 5 min charts are in position in which they "could" easily confirm a relative positive divegrence, in this case 3C needs to pivot to the upside and lock in the signal which I think will happen as the 3 min chart is doing that and the 5 is starting to do the same.

 While the 10 min was pretty darn negative and we've seen price follow the signal, it's also seemingly being slowly accumulated in a relative positive divegrence (weaker form of divergence).

 The 15 min chart has clear signals from left to right and I drew in the noise/chop in yellow from one day to the next since last week, today looks like a more volatile version of that, but that can also set up a pop to the upside if this is accumulated and my gut feel Friday was it would be, but still within the realm of choppy/noise, perhaps a bit more volatile, there's no large positive here by any stretch of the immagination.

*Right now I see the SPY 1 min is improving a bit intraday and price action is starting to move laterally (intraday base?).

 In fact the SPY right now as I type this post is looking more like this IWM 1 min chart

 Earlier I wasn't impressed by the IWM at all, now it's looking more interesting as you see this 2 min leading positive intraday today.

 The same for the 3 min

I may want to close the SRTY trading position based on this.** Actually I just posted I did close it for now, make hay while the sun is shining.

 Like all of the other averages, when you get to 10-15 mins they are negative and /or leading negative. This is a difficult, move quick trading environment unless you can withstand a little drawdown here and there, if I didn't have access to the market like I do, I'd leave SRTY in place as this is the higher probability move, to the downside with a more impressive move, but if you can make trades around the position , there's extra $ to be made.

 QQQ 1 min was in line at the capture... it is "starting" to transition away from in line to a more positive stance, but not a positive divegrence as of yet.

This QQQ 5 min relative positive or what can be a relative positive if 3C locks in the pivot is what is giving us a bit of a heads up on intraday action below the 5 min charts in the same way the 10-15 min negatives are giving us a heads up of what to expect on a slightly longer basis as they sit. This is why I say, "If you don't have the kind of access to the market to trade in and out, I wouldn't feel uncomfortable holding IWM short or SRTY long, there's just going to be the normal counter trend moves, but you have to expect that when you are trading on a longer/swing basis.

 This is a longer look at the same QQQ 5 min chart as above, the dominant signal is really negative as it is leading negative, but short term there's the relative positive I mentioned above, the market is as dynamic as anything I've ever seen so very few things move in linear fashion.

When looking at a QQQ 10 min chart, this is what I meant when considering probabilities and why if I had a QQQ short on, intraday positives faster than a 10 min chart wouldn't bother me too much as this is the stronger signal, it has to be matched though with the appropriate trade, this signal is not for a day trade, it's more in the swing category.

More as I dig it up.