Quick Market Update

You'll have to excuse me if I'm a bit quiet right now, I see several different things that I want to post, 1) is a revision of the GLD base, not that I'm ready to say GLD is a buy here, but the original base pullback expected is looking less likely and it is looking more likely that we are putting in the rest of the base starting from July of 2013, right in this area.

GDX, gold miners, are looking more interesting even though I have liked them, it is just their inverse correlation with the market on bounces that has had me holding off as a long NUGT position would effectively be adding to the short positions as the bounce correlation is typically inverse while the trend correlation is usually 1:1 although that changes from time to time, it's one of the stranger correlations on the market. In any case, because of the noise I have expected yesterday, today, etc. I've held off on a GDX position, that may change very shortly and that's a post I want to get out.

Also FXP looks like it's going to come to us and give us a nice re-entry.

Right now the market averages are kind of mellow in intraday activity, there's a slight negative bias intraday right now, what is important about that for me is how that effects the 30 min charts which were the only hang up I still had, they did move to a leading negative position yesterday afternoon, I want to see that deepen a bit more.

I have a lot of other assets I want to cover as well, but I just wanted to give you a quick head's up on the market, the intraday TICK is falling apart a bit as well, again on an intraday basis.

I'll try to have those other posts out ASAP, that's why I might be a bit quiet as far as email responses, etc.

Quick look at the averages...

 As I said yesterday, I think the day before and today, it's not really so much the market head fakes or target areas although they are something I have to keep in mind and consider, it's more the timing and noise that I don't want to open new positions in to as it's essentially dead money, opportunity cost (as your dry powder may be more useful in another asset) and at worst open market risk for no god reason, but these are really short term timing issues and I'm going to use the QQQ as a proxy to show you what I saw and meant by "noise", even though I think it is deliberate noise, not random.

The 1 min intraday Q's are hum-drum as mentioned above, sort of, "BLAH" intraday underlying action.

 The 2 min chart is in line, you can't get much more "Blah" than that.

This 5 min chart may look a little confusing, but just follow the divergences from left to right, we had the negative at what we suspected was a head fake move and the market came down from there. Yesterday we saw positives mostly in the 1-3 min range, a few in the 5 min range, but pretty weak, we had a move up from there, that saw a negative divegrence right away on the open and a move back down as the market has popped above and below the apex of the triangle so many times now I don't even think it's relevant anymore. Right now we have a slight leading negative intraday signal.

This is the noise I have been talking about or chop and that's not a market that I want to get too involved in, at least not for the trading positions I'd like to load up on.

 IWM intraday is slightly leading negative, but 3C is also moving along in line with price action, I think the leading negative came from the early distribution of the gap up.

And the SPY 3 min showing some slight negative action intraday.

These charts aren't going to tell us a whole lot as far as intraday activity, they aren't strong enough to trade, but what they are important for is the migration process and the 1 chart that was still a concern yesterday morning, the 30 min. so the action on these charts will hopefully migrate down to the 30 min chart and give us a better signal there that will be very useful.

30 min SPY, there's a positive divegrence and about a 3-day footprint. The 11th was the low of the preceding downtrend and was the day I posted the upside "target range" I expected, so by the 11th we were already clear that we expected a bounce and thus far the target range has been right on, although we haven't moved to the top of the range, but that's why it's a range and not an exact target.

Until yesterday this chart was perfectly in line with price action, that needed to change and as of yesterday afternoon it did with the start of a leading negative divergence, the continuation of that negative divegrence will be VERY helpful in timing the addition of new or add to positions (short).