A.M. Update

Some of the FX affficinados are claiming that the Yen Carry Pairs were unsuccessfully ramped last night with each attempt failing in multiple pairs, I really don't see evidence of that when we consider what 3C has told us and is telling us, to me it looks very much like USD/JPY which is still the dominant carry pair is simply ranging as the activity in both the Yen and USD are at lows we haven't seen for about 2 weeks, which isn't surprising since the first task was to break above $102 which occurred, we could tell by longer charts it wouldn't hold which it didn't and then as is typically the case there are several tests as the currency pair loiters in the area of support/resistance which is the psychological level of $102 and that's all that's happening now.

There's also an argument to be made that there's so little 3C activity in both $USD and JPY , therefore USD/JPY, and that is simply a reflection of the Friday op-ex pin as  we opened right around yesterday's close which is typical for an op-ex Friday, but don't get complacent and assume that will always be the case. The QE-mavens have long maintained that POMO Tuesday's will result in a market ramp, however I have suspected that the banks are putting those diminishing (nearly) risk free profits back toward their balance sheet rather than in the market and the evidence is pointing in that direction, take the April 30th 1-day Federal Reserve Fixed Rate Reverse Repo that saw the second highest usage ever as banks plugged holes in their balance sheets for end of month window dressing. Beyond that, look at this Tuesday with a fairly substantial POMO on Deck, the SPX closed up 0.04%, hardly market moving, the NDX down -0.04%, the Russell 2000 -1.10% and the Dow up 0.12%. The previous Tuesday was far worse, SPX-.90%, the NDX down -1.35%, the R2K down 1.62% and the Dow down 0.78%. The point being is the market is ever changing and assuming things will stay the same is a big mistake.

So far looking through all of the futures, about the ONLY thing I see that may lead to something is some movement, only intraday so far, in the $USDX that just started

This positive 1 min divergence is just starting, but considering the typical pin of an op-ex Friday, it might be able to build something that has some effect on the market by the end of the day for early next week.

The 5 min $USDX is still in negative position, the Yen 1 min is inline, the 5 min is in negative position, but improving so we'll have to see which way the FX pairs are going to lean and if the market is going to maintain its tight correlation with them.

This Yen 5 min negative still hasn't moved so I can only assume that the start of improvement in the $USD might bring the Yen down as this chart is forecasting.

As for the Index futures, they are all in line intraday with 5 min positive in NQ and ES and TF in line.

Market action this morning is EXACTLY what you'd expect given the 1 min negatives in to the close yesterday. We'll see where we go from here.

Usually on an op-ex Friday the action doesn't pick up until 2 p.m. and that's where we get some of our best 3C data of the week surprisingly.