EOD Market Update

I have a little time this weekend, likely tomorrow in which I'll post a more complete analysis of the market with breadth readings and such that I can't get until after the close. However as of now, the formation of the bear flag continues, yes the market is advancing, but that's what a bear flag is, a consolidation that moves in the opposite direction of the preceding trend which was down coming in to the flag.

The 3C charts still suggest very strongly that we see a head fake breakout of the flag to the upside and while we haven't seen the head fake below as of yet, there are still good signals to suggest that probability as well, I assume it would be very early next week, however this is a smaller probability than the upside move.

The only reason this would really matter is if there were signals strong enough to warrant a hitch-hiking trade (long market) for the head fake move and then switch to shorting in to price strength.

Here are some examples...

 SPY 3 min still has a relative negative divegrence suggesting a break below the bear flag in the VERY near term , unless 3C goes on to make a higher high which it hasn't here or in any other 3 min average.

 QQQ 3 min is the same as the SPY, this is good as confirmation, however the larger move that "Should" follow (assuming we do get a Crazy Ivan shakeout with a break below the flag first) is the larger breakout above the flag which is not expected by the rules and precepts of Technical Analysis, thus it is a head fake move.

The 5 min charts are higher probability, but also would be the second move with the earlier charts representing the first.

5 min QQQ definitely has strength enough for an upside breakout, if we did get the head fake below the flag that formed a bear trap and a "W" base, this chart would only get stronger and "may" make it worthwhile to open a hitch-hiking, long trade.

IWM 3 min also confirms as does...

The IWM 5 min

As far as the FX aspect goes, the $USD still hasn't done much...

 However the intraday USD/JPY does suggest a move lower in to the close by both the USD/JPY and the market averages, or perhaps very early Monday, but I doubt this chart would hold water as a 1 min Futures chart as it would have to go through Sunday night, Monday morning and in to the open, very unlikely.

However,

The negative divegrence on the 5 min Yen is still not fulfilled and it looks like 3C is getting uglier. If the Yen comes down, as long as the $USD can at least hold in position or gain, the USD/JPY moves up and take Index futures with it, THIS WOULD BE CONFIRMATION OF OUR 5 MIN CHARTS WITH POSITIVE DIVERGENCES.

That's what I see going in to the close, if anything pops up in the next 10 mins or so, I'll let you know, but that's where probabilities rest as of now, a pop above the bear flag formation which is useful to short in to and perhaps a Crazy Ivan which may open a second trade, a short duration long hitch-hiking trade to ride the head fake move above the flag, but we'd want that pullback or break below the flag to reduce risk and make it worthwhile.