Friday, May 9, 2014

A.M. Update

As expected from yesterday's EOD Update ...

"Don't forget tomorrow is a Friday and that means it's likely the market will open near today's close and we'll have a weekly op-ex max-pain pin until about 2 p.m. so we may not get a lot of action tomorrow."

And that's just about how we opened, the Q's a little weaker as AAPL opened a little weaker than the broad market. Then , as I'm writing this, we got this move (USD/JPY (red/green candlesticks) vs ES (purple)...
I'm not quite sure what that's about if anything as of yet, USD/JPY didn't sell off that bad, but we did close with some negative divergences in DIA, SPY was flat and a few leading indicators were negative or flat, yields were negative in to their close, some sentiment indicators went sharply negative in to the close as if they'd expect an early move to the downside. In any case, we'll look at that in OPENING INDICATIONS if there's anything to see.

As far as overnight futures and the ramp, there wasn't one. Nothing significant happened in USD/JPY or Index futures, but still worth a look.

 ES just before the open with a 4 p.m. print of $1871.50 and a 9:30 open of 1871.25, as I said late yesterday, " tomorrow is a Friday and that means it's likely the market will open near today's close ".

 USD/JPY never came down enough to form a "W" pattern, but saw a small positive pre-market sending the pair higher, but not too close to the $102 mark.

The Yen saw a small negative at the same time which obviously helped that small move, there's nothing important about this, I'm just showing how "A" effects "B".

The $USD 1 min stayed in line on a move higher, also helping that little move, but there seems to be a larger relative negative divergence, we shall see what that's about if anything.

5 min ES is nearly perfectly in line pre-market like the n"op-ex pin" that opens near Friday's close, of course yesterday's intraday highs sold off, that's also where some Leading Indicators went negative, like sentiment as if the pros were taking their profits at the highs knowing something else was coming along early today of perhaps longer, but it wasn't that big of a sell-off to induce panic.

 5 min USD/JPY, there's a relative negative divergence here too at the current prices, maybe we form an ascending triangle? If so it would be exactly in the wrong place , but traders don't care about confirmation rules, they just see price patterns.

The 5 min Yen is negative at the same area, remember yesterday I showed the negative divegrence in the 5 min Yen, it fired and sent the Yen lower (green arrow) and was still leading lower in pre-market at the capture so it makes sense with that price move just after the open which is now forming an intraday bear flag.

Interestingly the 5 min $USDX looks like it wants to come down soon and take the Index futures with it. Ironically a smaller move down could form an Ascending triangle so that may be in the cards. The $USDX is looking a tiny bit parabolic anyway on the MOST RECENT pre-market move up anyway.

 VIX 5 min Futures remain very strong with a long/strong leading positive divergence so the VIX activity in price seems very bland and sometimes outright strange, but I do believe they are grabbing this by the handful.

ES 15 min is a little more positive, this "may" reflect a price move that goes with USD/JPY>$102, or it may be noise, it's too small right now to be reliable, but needs to be watched.

This 15 min leading negative Yen is still the best chart suggesting near term action, the 5 min negative in the Yen has started to move, if the 15 min does the same as it should, the USD/JPY $102 would be an extremely likely event. However as mentioned before, a short lived one as there's nothing negative in the Yen beyond this 15 min chart.

And $USDX 15 min is ladgging a little, but I suspect it will catch up, the 60 min chart is positive.

I still think THE MARKET DEPENDS ON THE $USD/JPY, i think that's the near term key to getting some upside movement and that upside movement is a gift with all of the averages having at least 3 cycles (multiple timeframe analysis) that are all either at late stage 3 or have already hit stage 4 and are late in the volatility shakeout, the next move in staging would be a return to stage 
4.

I'll have opening indications out as soon as there's something to post.

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