Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Daily GDX/NUGT Update

I still love NUGT, as you may recall last week I opened a partial position in NUGT (3x long gold miners/GDX), I've just been waiting for the charts to all sync up to fill pout the rest of the position.

A brief synopsis of GDX/ Gold Miners is that we have a large Inverse H&S base ...
 GDX on a daily chart with the large inverse H&S bottom, the area of "H" would be the head, it's also an area we identified earlier as a likely stage 1 base, even as it is likely part of a larger base which would support a very strong upside move.

If you look closely, the left side of the pattern has several shoulders, this is known as a "Complex " H&S pattern (rather than only having one). In T.A. textbooks, the examples of H&S tops and bottoms almost always show the right side having the same number of shoulders as the left, in real life there's a tendency toward that kind of symmetry as well, but it is not a prerequisite, it's not seen in every H&S top or bottom.

There was also a trading range which you might be able to make out as the bottom of the far right shoulder, the 10 and 15 min GDX and NUGT charts (with DUST confirmation) told us to expect a break below the range and for accumulation to pick up there and the 10/15 min charts to be repaired there and go positive, that's essentially what we are waiting for as the longer charts are already positive and ready to go.

GDX
 This is the 10 min break below the range 3C was forecasting and the repair of that timeframe after price broke below the range.

The 15 min chart also repaired so this looks good, but I'm always looking for confirmation, thus we look at NUGT, the 3x leveraged long of GDX...

NUGT
 The 15 min chart also repaired here below the range as expected in numerous updates, but the problem I see right now is this...

The 10 min NUGT chart hasn't repaired like the 10 min GDX chart so which to go with?

For that I used DUST, the 3x leveraged inverse or short GDX ETF.

The 15 min DUST chart confirms the 15 min GDX and NUGT positives by making a negative as it is the inbverse or opposite of GDX and NUGT, but when it comes to the 10 min chart...

DUST sides with NUGT as it has a positive signal on the 10 min chart, confirming what NUGT is showing.

I don't mind having exposure to NUGT or GDX long here, but as I did recently, I left the position at speculative or half size until all of the charts resolve and confirm.

Thus we're waiting on the 10 min NUGT and DUST confirmation, that this has resolved to a positive divegrence.

There is a gap just below in GDX and NUGT, that may offer an opportunity to get these charts all in a row. Otherwise, I'd either consider a partial position or be patient, I would NOTT enter any options trades at this point.

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