Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Quick Market Update

Just as the averages are VERY dull today thus far, the underlying signals in the market are "just about" as dull, a very flat day, however there are  a few leveraged market correlated ETFs starting to show some interesting signals and I'd say we are seeing more in the way of migration of the divergence (negative) that started yesterday, although at a much slower pace.

As for the driver of equities last week and this week, the USD/JPY, there aren't many interesting signals there either right now, but we have plenty of time left in the day for something interesting to pop up.

As for the component currencies (futures), the Yen intraday is posting a positive divegrence (meaning as Yen price is moving down, 3C is moving up forecasting the Yen to make a move up- a divergence) while the $USD is posting a negative suggesting the USD/JPY see some intraday downside and the market should follow in like manner, although these aren't huge.

There are some interesting intraday VIX futures signals, they keep seeing positive divergences, my gut feeling remains the same, they are in the know and they are picking up protection against a downside move or a position for it in size.

ES intraday looks a bit positive, but both NQ and TF (NASDAQ and Russell 2000 futures) are either in line with price or slightly negative (leading position) on the day.

SPY has a slight intraday negative and the longer term charts or migration of that divergence keeps moving out to longer charts suggesting that it is seeing distribution of this move which is what we'd expect anyway as the $USD and Yen divergences flipped once USD/JPY moved above $102 as was expected as well.

Intraday QQQ looks more positive which doesn't match up well with NQ charts, but the longer term migration process is looking uglier in the Q's than the SPY, so the longer charts are the more important to me.

The IWM 1 min also has a positive, however it has not seen 3C pivot up and lock it in which "may" explain the positives here and the negatives intraday in the futures, but more importantly is the migration of the negative divegrence starting yesterday almost immediately after the break to the upside with USD/JPY above $102. Take a look.

 IWM 1 mi intraday is in leading positive position, but 3C needs to pivot up to lock that positive divegrence in, it "could" keep moving lower and move to "in line".

However, the above chart pales in comparison to the one below.

This is the 10 min IWM, note how much migration of the negative divegrence has occurred just since yesterday, it's on a 10 min chart and leading negative to a new low locally. This is what REALLY matters.

The DIA continues to look the worst of the bunch.

I saw some interesting developments yesterday in leading indicators so I'm going to check those out quickly while it's still rather quiet.


 

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