***Sorry about the delay, this post took an exceptional amount of time to upload the charts***
I wanted to get this XLF post out last night, but it was almost 11 p.m. by the time I stopped working to get something to eat so here it is now.
FAZ is a full size long position in the trading tracking portfolio, it's down 1% on the position which is fine.
I really like what I see in XLF and FAZ, the only chart that is not giving me good confirmation or signals is the 2 min chart, which is kind of not surprising given intraday trade has been very "blah" and of course very choppy market wide going on the 6th day now, really since about the 22nd, the 11-15th was the best entry and we had many there as well as forecasted targets as a reversal was VERY clear in the charts and the best time in my view to exit the market or those trades was the 22nd, since then it has been a meat grinder as we wait for confirmation of the next cycle pivot.
This is the SPY and now the 6th consecutive day of meat grinding chop. The yellow arrows just point out how failed moves become fast reversals, the whole head fake concept.
As far as real 3C signals to enter cycles, we knew by the 11th and were closing shorts/puts and opening longs/calls, the 22nd would have been about the best place to exit if you are trying to stick with any kind of trend trading, other than a couple of days, everything has been very flat.
As for XLF...
This is the intraday chart, in line and slightly leading negative
The 2 min I skipped as I said, no confirmation there, but actually it's in line with price now.
This 3 min has some strong negatives at pivot highs, there's a question in my mind as to whether this 3 min chart can form a relative positive divergence or is just catching down like the 2 min chart just did?
If it did, it may give a decent entry for XLF shorts/FAZ longs on an intraday basis.
The 5 min chart and the cycle from the 11/15th which I'd say ended any trend other than choppy lateral around the 23rd/24th, There was a recent head fake in yellow and a leading negative with price following it after the head fake failed move.
The 10 min chart cleans up the 11/15th trend , stage 1 base and clearly illustrates the exit around 22-24th, since then nothing but a uglier leading negative divegrence thus it seems fairly plain that we are on the edge of stage 3 top area and the downside pivot that should move 3 different trends all to or back to stage 4 decline.
The 15 min chart catches the February cycle too, this is the larger one , XLF like many assets went leading negative before stage 2 was even halfway through.
As you see, XLF has also made the transition to stage 4 and the volatility shakeout back above former resistance, now support, but the area that defines the stages 3 and 4.
The 30 min chart is confirming signals from the 15 min chart perfectly. Financials do appear to be in significant trouble as mentioned earlier about April 30th Window Dressing with banks borrowing from the F_E_D for 1 day to dress windows and plug or fill capital short-falls for the month end report.
The 60 min chart should make the February cycles resolution of highest probability VERY CLEAR.
FAZ-3x short Financials
FAZ 60 min confirmation
15 min confirmation leading positive
The bull pennant/flag in FAZ...
Accumulation of that area on a 10 min chart.
And most recently on a 3 min chart.
FAZ is an absolute hold in my view and an add to or new position if you get the chance on a counter trend pullback in FAZ.
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