GDX / NUGT Position Management

I've decided what I'm going to do for now with the NUGT long position, it's taking a more forest rather than the trees perspective. There were some negative divergences in both GDX and NUGT that were along the lines of a pullback, nothing too sharp, but if there's a high probability, I'd rather exit, book the gains, maybe enter DUST until it's time (pullback ends) to re-enter NUGT long, but this is a much broader base, a much stronger trend (3C charts) and since just before the CPI data came out, many of those shorter term negatives suggesting a pullback were able to move quickly to in line status.

I've looked at the longer term base and whether a larger inverse H&S bottom or a Cup and handle bottom, GDX/NUGT are acting as they should at this point in those patterns.

For example...

While I was afraid a candlestick like today's might show up, a Harami reversal, it's a 1-day reversal candlestick, it's not on increased volume and to be accurate, a Harami or other "reversal" candlesticks don't necessarily mean down, they mean the current trend has lost some momentum, but there are 3 trends, up, down and lateral which is consolidation. With GDX sitting just under Stage 2 breakout resistance (diagonal red trendline), it wouldn't be surprising to see a little consolidation before a breakout move to a serious stage 2 trend occurs, that's the trending stage and out of the choppy base.

We also have X-Over long signals, we have the trend now fitting inside daily Trend Channels, we have strong 3C charts and a few weak ones in short timeframes.

Using a weekly Heiken Ashi candlestick chart, we can look at this as a large inverse H&S base with the Left Shoulder, Head and Right Shoulder just under the neckline or as a Cup & Handle Base in which case the handle would be about to breakout as well at the right place. The price chart shows the last 2 weeks as a reversal for the first of the 2 green candles to the upside and second shows strong momentum.

Also volume is doing exactly what it should for either pattern, increasing. These volume trends are going to become more and more important so I'll be putting out a piece on volume analysis.

 On a daily Heiken Ashi chart we have an accelerating trend as the candle bodies get bigger, unlike regular candlesticks, the longer upper wick is bullish with these and look at that volume, exactly what it should be by the textbook.

Looking at the 4 hour 3C chart for the same time period, we'd expect to see increasing accumulation until it's at its heaviest point just before a breakout, that's exactly what we see in either base pattern.

I think to let this go without strong evidence would be very short sited poor judgement.

I'll be holding NUGT long.