Monday, June 9, 2014

Quick EOD Update

There's a very small 1 min positive in the SPY, and a 1 min positive in ES and NQ at 2:30,  not much of anything else though.

The amount of damage done between Friday and today (emphasis on today) is staggering, every time I look three''s a new, deeper leading negative divegrence and these are not 1 and 2 min charts, I'm seeing them on 30 and 60 min charts.

If I had to guess, I'd say if you ;look at the SPY, around noon today would be something like a mini H&S top with non time being the top of the head. I don't see how the market can not do what we expected Friday and start to wrap up the head fake process and send the market lower. In all honesty, I didn't see anything on the charts Friday that would lead me to believe we'd see this level of deterioration today, I'll post a few screen captures after this.

When we first expressed the probability of a head fake move and identified the bear flag that was a dummy flag put there to create the initial momentum, the idea was to use some long hitch-hiking trades to ride it up and then switch to the short side, use the price strength to short in to at better prices. I see no reason we shouldn't be using the time we have to enter positions we are interested in and I'll likely be spending most of my time tomorrow just throwing ideas out there, because I think we are past the analysis stage of what happens next.

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