Monday, June 9, 2014

TRADE IDEA: LONG TERM... ACI (LONG)

This is one of the few that popped up on the long scan, there were about 10 times more short signals.

In any case, this looks to be the "new normal" for a double bottom.

 This is the scan buy/sell signals, there were recently a cluster of long signals right below major support on a daily chart, double bottom support. This looks like the head fake move below that support we'd expect to see just before a significant reversal.

Again, this looks to be a longer term position, not a trade.

This is the 5-day chart, note the flat range to the right of about a year, this is where the double bottom-like base is.

This is support on a daily chart being taken out, double bottoms use to act differently, often holding support, but again for the last 10 years or so, Wall St. has used these century old concepts against traders.

There''s a lot of volume as price moves below support, one of the reasons why we see these moves.

However..
The daily 3C chart is positive at the break below support, multi-day charts look even better.


 It looks like the reversal process started before the break below support (60 min) judging by some of the 3C charts.

If I were to place a stop, I would not put it right under new support, it's a very obvious place, I like to give it as much room as possible on a new reversal, however our M.A. screen looks like it should hold above the support area.

This is the 60 min chart at the break below support, exactly what we want to see to confirm the probability of it being a false/head fake move.

The other charts are where they should be as well like the 30 min

Or the 15 min

The 10 min and the 5 min is perfectly in line right now so I don't forsee any pullback of significance on the near term horizon.

The M.A. Screen we use to avoid whipsaws and give singals as well as first pullback and second pullback areas, is being used on a 60 min chart right now, I'd like to see this on a daily ASAP, but the signals will always show up on faster charts first as they are new. We have 3 long signals here.

Typically the first pullback is to the 10-bar yellow moving average and the second and subsequent to the blue 22-bar, I prefer stops on the close. Again, I'd like to see this get to a daily chart ASAP and  then switch stops over to the daily.

I'm going to go ahead and open a small long "Core" tracking position in ACI now. You might see if you can get an entry around the blue-22 bar on a 60 min chart, for me it's insignificant for the size of the base.


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