Market Update-Dow loses 17k

The USD/JPY lost about another 15 pips since the 9:30 open which didn't help equity futures, but there seems to be more to this than just the USD/JPY. Last night and Thursday I compiled a list of odd market behaviors,  think they are not the cause, but symptoms of the cause and I believe this is mainly about the market starting to front run the F_E_D , especially because of the uncertainty factor. The market knows the F_E_D cannot give solid guidance for when rate hikes will occur even if they absolutely wanted to because inflation has taken control over that out of their hands, the market knows it and is going to front run any rate hikes as they always front run the F_E_D.

The signs have been building all year, but some are pretty extreme, like SKEW, like the 10-year rates since the F_O_M_C on 6/18. All of the major averages have erased all Payrolls gains from last Thursday.

The Dow lost 17k on more volume than it took it with. Yesterday my question was, "Why didn't the Dow see follow through? Why was support tested 9 times yesterday?"

 Dow losing 17k this morning.

Yesterday I pointed out the Most Shorted Index I keep, saw the worst 1-day selling in 3 months yesterday, today it has taken back all short squeeze gains since the F_O_M_C squeeze which was substantial, but looks dwarfed here on 6/18, not only are all of the averages below Thursday's jobs report lows, but many assets/indicators are below the F_O_M_C short squeeze/knee jerk reaction.

(MSI in red, Russell 3000 in green).

As for what's going on intraday, the market is trying to get a toe-hold. If it can, it will try to build a lateral (price) positive divegrence and bounce which I' simply sell in to and open more puts on any price strength considering underlying weakness. However the divergences started for the toe hold are VERY weak, yesterday's IWM had better ones by this time yesterday that were run over, the same "could" happen today.

Looking at Index Futures and some market averages...

 ES intraday is trying to get a toe hold, but it will take a larger , lateral base to get any kind of bounce of note.

NQ is not that far along

Nor is TF.

The DIA intraday is not very far along

Nor are the Q's

Or the IWM, it's really a matter of time. If you see more lateral movement start to form, you can assume with a fairly high degree of certainty that intraday positive divergences are forming, but that's still only intraday.

Finally for the moment, I wouldn't chase, I think it's a horrible strategy, look at those who chased Dow 17k on the upside. I'd be patient, there are a lot of busses out there that have not left the station.