NFLX Update

I'm glad I took the NFLX 465 puts off the table, I don't like waiting around for corrections with options when I can exit them with a gain and re-enter once the correction is at a reversal spot, essentially, "Wash, rinse, repeat". However for the NFLX equity short which has no leverage and is meant as a longer term position, I have no problem leaving that open, if I had room and we saw a decent bounce which I think is likely not only for NFLX, but for the market as a whole, I'd add to the NFLX short.

 NFLX now has an intraday positive divegrence for today reaching out to the 5 min chart,  note how similar NFLX's behavior is to the market as a whole, this is why multiple asset confirmation is so important as part of what we do.

 This 15 min chart not only shows the larger eventual resolution to the downside, but NFLX trying to get this bounce together right at gap support, which is exactly where I would have guessed it would have tried to make a final stand.

 Looking at the same 15 min chart in context of the right shoulder or last rally, you can see why the probabilities are so heavily skewed toward a downside resolution which is why I have no problem shorting or adding to partial shorts in to a bounce or opening a put position again once I think the bounce has run its course as 3C intraday charts turn negative (like they turned positive today).

This is even higher probability at 60 min. Every rally has ended with strong distribution at the top, this is what smart money needs to move positions that can easily be a billion dollars in size, demand and higher prices. When you see a market falling, most smart money is long gone, retail however believes just the opposite, that it is smart money selling. This chart above gives you a very different understanding of how they operate, it's not just best for their positions, it's essential because of the size of their positions.