Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Market Update

The NASDAQ Index futures finally look like they are going to give up that in line status soon and it's reflecting on the QQQ charts as well.

There are still certain things I'm looking for before I want to call out a number of shorts, I am a bit disappointed that a lot of them on our list to short in to a bounce really haven't given us much to work with.

In any case, 1 bridge at a time.

NQ looks like this...
 I know this doesn't look like a big divergence, it's the change in character that is catching my attention.

AAPL has obviously been behind a lot of this move, but I'm looking at AAPL as it is starting to look very interesting for a put set up.


 The Q's intraday are showing a more extreme version of that divegrence.

And the context of the Q's after last week's damage.

As far as larger macro moves and when I definitely want to have short calls out, this 15 min chart is a perfect barometer, I'd like to see 3C make a new low here or at least a strong pivot down to lock in this divergence, with a 15 min chart falling apart, we're on the edge of really needing to have those short in place considering how badly everything else has deteriorated, especially since July 1 which is really a very interesting market study for those who have the time (Window dressing, underlying market conditions, etc.).

 SPY 1 min intraday, by the time I capture and post these they often look a bit different on these fast timeframes.

 SPY 2 min damage from last week

The divergence for last week's bounce and subsequent damage

The longer term is already there as is the mid-term like 10 min, so these intraday charts are really all that's left and mainly the IWM 10 min.

DIA intermediate 10 min damage for example, similar to SPY/QQQ

However it is holding up best intraday as far as 3C goes.

The accrued damage from last week leaves it leading negative in context.

 And we can see this 5 min chart is really the chart to be watching to bridge the short term charts with the damage on the intermediate/long term charts.

 IWM intraday seeing the same kind of action SPY and QQQ saw last week when they bounced, but IWM didn't.

 However at this point, this IWM 10 min chart is all that really matters for getting shorts in place.

Ironically we knew a week in advance IWM would lead a bounce and this 10 min chart held strong, but it never migrated at all to the 15 min chart which just goes to show you how much difference there really is between these timeframes even though it seems like it would be relatively small, it is not.

15 min from IWM's right shoulder top and in line on the downtrend, never even a hint of a larger positive divergence.

The TICK has been VERY mellow considering the MSI squeeze and rather trendless, +1000 is not going to change the breadth charts at all.


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