A.M. Update

I specifically didn't want to write anything this morning before the market opened just to see what the open would look like after this post from late yesterday which is a 3C concept which has held up well in the past, Should See A.M. Strength Tomorrow A.m.

While the IWM is only up +0.35% right now, it is early, but what's more interesting is the -.70% plunge in Futures (ES) overnight after US airstrikes (which must have been fully priced in by last night) were announced and took the market lower.

ES from last night to present (1 min), dropping ES .70%, but shortly after the European open...

 It appears the USD/JPY which broke below the psychological barrier of $102 was ramped higher just barely back above $102.

However...

 As mentioned yesterday, 3C divergences tend to pick up where they left off, really the underlying trade picks up, it's as if the day crew puts down what they are doing at the close and the night crew makes sure that things stay in place for when the day crew comes back on shift and resumes what they were doing. Even after such a heavy overnight decline in futures, the IWM gaps up in the direction of yesterday's closing intraday leading positive divergence

 So far the 2 min chart is still in line, it was late in the day yesterday when some positive divergences (after a day of whacky, unusable signals persisted nearly all day as price acted very much like the signals or lack of them) so it would take a little time for divergences to strengthen and migrate to longer term charts.

The SPY which was leading positive at the close also gapped higher,  the point is not the "strength", it's how much futures declined overnight, yet the market picked right back up where 3C had indicated at the close.

 The SPY put together the best looking intraday divergence yesterday, positive.

In any case, there are a number of geo-political items from Ukraine considering cutting off Russian energy/gas transit lines to Europe to Putin "tweeting" about de-escalation (which has always been a play for time to set up his pieces on the battle field or in the Duma).

The fact is protection is bid, Bunds again saw a strong bid as Germany is becoming the focal point or barometer of Europe as it will feel the greatest impact. Think about it, the EU and its free trade zone basically benefit Germany more than anyone else and who seems to call the shots when it comes down to a crisis like Greek default? Germany.

US treasuries are also showing a bid or flight to safety as the Ten year is yielding 2.38%.

Of course it's an op-ex max pain pin day (even the weeklies) which typically means price hangs around Thursday's close until about 2 p.m. at which time price can randomly do whatever it wants, but we tend to get some of the best 3C information of the week the last two hours of the day as most option contracts are cleaned up by about 2 p.m.

As far as current indications, S&P and NASDAQ futures look much weaker on the intraday 3C chart and Russell 2000 futures look like they have a slight lag, but are close to in line.

More on the way....