Friday, August 8, 2014

Market Update-Timing

There are several calls I'd like to enter or add to like XLF and IWM, there are actually quite a few stocks that look good, but for a bounce I'd rather use something that's going to represent the broad market and with some leverage (URTY or IWM calls, GFAS or XLF calls).

As I said earlier, "Don't Chase", however this bounce is now looking very strong for lift-of, something we haven't seen all week so at the same time, I don't want to miss it.

It seems we'll get a pullback starting now, whether this is just a pullback intraday or the move I'd really like to see, a head fake below this week's support for the various assets is what I think will be difficult to determine in the next hour (only having an hour).

As far as a pullback, here are a few of many assets suggesting it.
 Index futures like ES above have some nasty intraday negative divergences.

 FAS -3x long financials also looks to come down intraday, even though it looks ready to launch early next week.

XLF intraday also confirming.

QQQ 2 min looks like a stronger intraday negative leading divergence.


 VXX 1 min and 2 min below both have positives starting, they move opposite the market of course.

VXX 2 min

And the TICK trend has turned to a downtrend channel.

Still it will be difficult even with a pullback to tell whether migration has gone far enough to suggest  strong head fake move Monday like we see 80% of the time before a significant reversal or whether this is all we get.

I'll be looking for the closing charts as they tend to pick up where they left off just like today and yesterday. Thus I may throw some trade ideas out there very quickly, my main focus right now is on Financials and the IWM.

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