Monday, August 4, 2014

AMZN Trade/s Set-Up

AMZN has been a long term short trade favorite and one that I'd like to add to. I see one potential short term / bounce trade, but I think the bigger opportunity is a longer term short set-up/entry that gives a better entry and lowers risk.

Here's the AMZN daily chart and top pattern...
 AMZN H&S-like top pattern (these never look like the textbook in real life). AMZN has already come down off the right shoulder which is the second of 3 places I'll usually short a H&SA top, but with a gap fill of the gap coming off the top of the right shoulder, you have a pretty decent entry.

This is the daily 3C chart for AMZN, not only is this a large divergence and on a very powerful (
primary trend) timeframe, it's a large overall top pattern of over a year.


 On a short term basis the 5 min chart is leading positive right now, ideally for a long "bounce" trade into the gap (I'm not sure I'd say it will fill the gap, but I'd rather let the market tell us that) I'd like to see AMZN come down just like we are seeing in the Dow and IWM intraday (both of which are responding as expected in to lower prices, showing intraday accumulation).

If AMZN doesn't come down from here, I'd probably skip the short term piggy back long trade and set price alerts in the area of the gap and look more toward the longer term primary trend AMZN short, that's where I'd like to fill out the partial position open now.

The 2 min chart is similar to the overall market, as I said, unlike the Dow and IWM which have already hit Friday's intraday lows (thereabouts), I'm not sure if AMZN will, but if it did, especially if it broke below them with a positive intraday 3C divergence showing accumulation of the stops that are hit, I'd consider a short term long trade with the gap area as the upside target. Personally I'd prefer the leverage of options as this is a shorter duration trade with lower profit potential and I'd rather not allocate so much in resources to that lower profit potential, but it depends on risk tolerance and of course dry powder availability. Otherwise, I'd rather just be patient, wait for a bounce and look to short the price strength/3C weakness in to higher prices near the gap area.


 This 60 min chart of AMZN shows there's no strength here at all like the daily chart so again I suspect any bounce would  be just that, these short term positive divergences aren't a game changer for the probabilities of AMZN's primary trend (bearish).

This is a 15 min chart and even here there's nothing resembling a positive divegrence so again I think any bounce is capped by charts like this and selling price strength or shorting it is the bigger and higher probability trade.

I'l be setting price alerts for both potential positions.

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