Monday, August 4, 2014

Trade Set-Up FXI / FXP

I know quite a few of you like trading FXI and FXP (FTSE China 25 and UltraShort FTSE China 25 respectively) so I have been watching it and roughly expect it to look similar to US market, meaning an FXP long (or FXI short) looks likely to set-up this week. I'm guessing by the size of the reversal process area in place so far (which is similar to the US markets for a bounce (bounce in FXI and pullback in FXP) this will likely be more along the lines of a swing trade, perhaps a bit bigger and will likely trigger around the same time the US markets resume their move to the downside after an oversold bounce as expected for this week.

Remember FXI is the non-leveraged long FTSE China 25 and FXP is the Ultrashort. FXI has better volume and I prefer using those charts for analysis with confirmation from FXP.

 60 min FXP which is confirming the downtrend to the left and starting a small base to the right. This is a bit bigger than the US market base in terms of size as well as divergence as this is a positive divegrence out to 60 min whereas the SPY is just getting to a 15 min chart. I'd expect the US market to bounce while FXP pulls back to form a wider "W" or rectangle shaped base and by the time the US markets are ready to end their bounce and start a new leg lower, FXP should be ready as a long or FXI as a short.

 Using FXI's (because of the higher volume) 60 min chart we see the same confirmation of the FXP chart as the uptrend to the left is confirmed with 3C making higher highs with price until the recent negative divegrence confirming the FXP (Ultrashort) positive divegrence on the same timeframe.

FXI 15 min is a broader negative divegrence, but not very sharp yet, I suspect over the course of this week it will become sharper.

FXI 5 min which I suspect will act similarly to the US markets is likely to pullback very short term and bounce. It's at the end of this bounce I suspect the FXP base will be fully developed and ready for a long entry or short FXI).


 On a 1 min chart FXI's negative divegrence is sharp and I'd expect to see this migrate to longer timeframes/stronger divergence.

 You can see the divergence has moved to the 2 min chart

as well as the 3 min chart. I think by the time this is ready (likely later in the week), the 5 and 15 min charts will be very clear as well.

This is FXP's 5 min, by the same token I suspect later in the week FXP will pullback as US markets bounce and will have a better developed 5 min divergence here and a wider base to swing up from.

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