Gold/Gold Miners

Yesterday I posted a GDX update (Gold miners) in which it looked like we had our best signals for a pullback in GDX that we've seen in a while (which is what I'd like ti see to confirm and complete a long term long entry in GDX/NUGT).

GDX and GLD track pretty closely to each other and both gapped down this morning before the Ukraine shelling of Russian military vehicles news broke.

 GDX vs GLD on a daily chart, you can see they have a pretty tight correlation.

This morning Gold ran up off its lows, but didn't close the gap surprising some with the geo-political tensions rising. It seems the F_E_D's Kocherlakota gave a speech today in which he expects inflation to be subdued in to 2018, I don't think I agree with that and I sometimes wonder, considering the divergences yesterday, how much foot work the F_E_D does for Wall St. in BLATANT fashion, like creating a pullback in gold/GDX, both of which look great longer term which would be a gift fo deep pockets that want to accumulate it on the cheap.

In any case, it seems that speech held gold back from what some expected to be a bigger rise on the Ukraine developments.

In any case, as the intraday charts of the averages, industry groups and some stocks improve, gold seems to be losing its intraday shine and I think GDX likely with it.

 GLD's near term divegrence on a 5 min chart from accumulation to the left to a negative divegrence on the right, similar to GDX's. This isn't the kind of divergence that would hurt the longer term base that's in place, especially apparent in GDX, but enough to create a pullback.

This is GLD's 1 min intraday which also shows a similar recent negative divegrence like the one pointed out yesterday in GDX as I expected a pullback to start soon.

If you look closely at the intraday chart to the right, GLD is starting to go from in line to a leading negative divergence intraday, again as the averages improve.

 The 5 min Gold Futures have the same negative divegrence that GLD does which offers decent confirmation, at least on a short term pullback.

And intraday Gold futures are seeing a negative divergence as well.

I suspect both Gold and GDX will pullback as we have been looking for ever since the breakout above the GDX base. I'm looking for positive divergences to show up during the pullback which would give us confirmation that GDX/Gold are being accumulated on the cheap and give us a new long entry in to either, although I prefer GDX (NUGT long).