Market Update

I don't see anything that we haven;t seen developing through the week or that I wouldn't expect to see on the recent Ukrainian news.

The latest is from the Ukrainian government website , it seems Ukraine had coordinated "the attack" on the Russian armed forces that entered Ukraine, obviously trying to show Putin to think twice before reacting as there's NATO support for the action...

"President of Ukraine and Prime Minister of Great Britain discussed international efforts on the settlement of the conflict in the Donbas

President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko had a phone conversation with Prime Minister of Great Britain David Cameron.

The parties coordinated their actions on the response to the information regarding the entry of Russian military machines to the territory of Ukraine that has been clearly witnessed by international journalists, particularly of "Guardian" newspaper. The President informed that the given information was trustworthy and confirmed because the majority of that machines had been eliminated by the Ukrainian artillery at night."

As for charts, deterioration continues and has stepped up a bit since the news, but seems to be pretty close to the rate of deterioration since the bounce started. The main divergences in the 10-15 min range that are key to a reversal other than one caused by a geo-political crisis erupting more than it has, are still intact, but it takes a little longer for them to respond so we'll see if that happens. Also note Treasury yields continuing to diverge from stocks.

 10 year yield vs the SPY

Ten year yield vs SPY over the week, now at 2.327%

Of course the TICK data was a reaction to the news.

 SPY deterioration on the 1 min chart, note that it doesn't seem there was any increased ROC on the Ukraine news.

 That has migrated to the 2 min chart

And the 5 min chart

The one I'm most interested in for a real pivot to the downside is this longer 10 min, with the 5 min getting worse, the 10 min should start to deteriorate soon.

 QQQ 1 min

QQQ 2 min

QQQ 5 min

There's still a relative negative divegrence in the QQQ 10 min, the potential start of a divergence here.

IWM 1 min looked bad overnight in TF / Futures so this 1 min chart is not surprising, the one thing that is, it looks like an intraday positive divegrence is forming so we may see an intraday consolidation, maybe even an upside reversal.

 IWM 3 min. I'll note that IWM has seen the least deterioration, but also has had the worst relative performance as seen last night, still at resistance areas the other averages already broke.


For example, I noted yesterday that it looked like there was some actual improvement likely to try to break out above local resistance levels.

There is a relative negative divegrence in the chart I'm most focussed on, 10 min base's positive.