Market Update-Intention

I don't want to repeat too often, but for the sake of this post, the highest probability in any reversal up or down once it is through the reversal process which can be a base for an upside move or a top for a downside move, is for a head fake move in the opposite direction just before the actual reversal and we see this in every asset, every timeframe, although the more obvious a support/resistance area is and the more watched the asset is, the higher probability, but it's still probably around 80%, that's why I drew the rounding reversal (top) process yesterday, the "Igloo with a chimney" as an illustration.

There's been some question with the long weekend and the Ukraine issues flaring up, whether this process that I suspected was being prepared for today as there were intraday positive divergences at the close yesterday, until overnight news sent ES futures lower to lows of the week... with the question being, "Will they fight for the head fake move?" or perhaps delay it until we get through the weekend or what I have felt is the lowest probability and just let it go, which means letting the market go.

There may be some intension showing up in the charts although this is really pushing it.

First the divergences that have been deteriorating...

 SPY 1 min intraday positive from yesterday afternoon has essentially stalled, but this had a stronger divergence out to 3 mins.

This one has also essentially stalled and from a point of no momentum, it's easy for things to fall apart, especially with a little geo-political nudge or even the concern of holding anything over a 3-day weekend.

 This is what's waiting just on the other side of those intraday positive divergences, a 5 min chart that is leading negative which is essentially pulling on prices, however note today it has almost stalled as well, in fact it has stalled at about the same time the intraday positives showed up yesterday afternoon, which seems to me shows some intention of running the head fake move which would look something like the yellow/red arrows drawn in above.
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 Here's a closer view of the same 5 min SPY chart , it's not making lower lows (distribution) , but on hold for the moment.

The IWM positive divegrence didn't develop until this morning, although it was already in place in TF/Russell 2000 futures intraday pre-market.

 And the QQQ 1 min which was positive at the lows this morning and then started to lose momentum, this is the last chart I captured and note momentum on the upside divergence is picking up which leads to some more possible intensions showing through.

 TICK intraday was rising with the divergences and as they started falling apart, so did intraday breadth as you can see the channel wedge and then TICK fall out, that's about the time I noticed something else that seems like intention.

 HYG's longer term chart was leading the market well before it ever moved up while it was basing early August,  HYG is almost always used to ramp the market on moves like this, but as pointed out the last week or so, it is also leading the market in the reversal process as all upside faded and a lateral reversal process trend established with deep leading negative divergences.

However this morning take a look at short intraday charts for HYG...

 These are not going to change the reversal process narrative for HYG or the market, but on an intraday basis, it looks like they are trying to pull HYG back in the game intraday to help support the market as they apparently are looking for whatever edge they have to coax this higher, likely to our head fake (although op-ex max pain pin levels can't be ruled out either).

HYG's 2 min positive divergence this morning as well.

Although SPY and QQQ continue to deteriorate, they might get HYG to lift in time to catch them before any serious downside can gain momentum. This seems to show intension, the details are the difficult part.

I'm going to spend a bit more time now on actual individual assets as a few have triggered in zones I've been looking for.