A lot of the intraday positive divergences from yesterday are starting to slip. The Index futures for now are holding in line except the R2K which was the only of the major averages without intraday positive divergences at the close yesterday.
There are still several scenarios such as waiting for the uncertain (Ukraine) 3-day weekend to pass, there's still uncertainty on the ECB later next week, but that's all over the place, up yesterday, down today.
We also have op-ex Friday (weekly) tomorrow interfering.
I think observation right now is probably the best course of action, although I'll say that I do feel much better having already added back at least part of the intended FAZ short while maintaining the others. I'm in no hurry at the present moment to fill out the FAZ short position, but if things start to take a turn for the worse, I'll go ahead with that.
I still feel the most likely scenario is a head fake pop to the upside before the actual, true downside pivot. One thing is for sure (in my opinion of course), We've reached a major market inflection point and really in the big picture of things you may be talking about a few percent or a few days, but the major theme is as I showed earlier, major deterioration, a cycle that we knew was coming and knew what it would be used for and that cycle is pretty well through the reversal process.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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