Intraday these charts are starting to matter less and less and the base positive divegrence charts that are in the 10-15 min range, the ones that stayed in line with the market's move higher all last week and part of this week are the main focus as they have been since the start, it's just now they have done what I was looking for them to do to give us warning that we are transitioning from a stage 2 bounce/mark-up trend to a stage 3 top/reversal process trend.
However the intraday charts (the IWM is a bit stronger as I suggested in an earlier post just because it has been such a laggard), clearly demonstrate the continued trend of distribution at the upper standard deviation of VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price).
ES hitting the upper VWAP standard deviation, which is used as an institutional/hedge fund measure of the fill the middle men tasked with filling larger orders in stocks they make a market in (market makers/specialists). This is where we expect to see distribution and often price drops back down to VWAP shortly after hitting this upper standard deviation simply because the demand at that level has exhausted itself.
The SPY which is connected closely to SPX futures above seeing intraday distribution at the upper VWAP channel.
The NASDAQ Futures are falling short of VWAP, I'm sure AAPL's lack of performance today is contributing to this falling short.
In any case, the QQQ seeing ditribution at the same area.
TF/Russell 2000 futures which made a nice intraday comeback from the lower standard deviation to the upper...
And the Russell's ETF, IWM seeing distribution in to VWAP's upper standard deviation channel.
As for XLF, many of you may recall how long I waited with a partial FAZ long for XLF to break above its range in July, it started to become obvious that this wasn't going to happen without help, which means the simple concept of a head fake move (in this case something like a large Crazy Ivan) used for momentum to complete the task that couldn't be completed inside the range (as there was no incentive for retail to buy as there was no technical breakout or other technical concept in play) was actually predictable weeks ahead of time, this is one of the main reasons I closed FAZ on the first day of the move below the range (8/1), this is not what technical analysis would normally teach, it's the opposite in fact. TA would teach to short the break-down, but in this case it was being used as a bear trap/short squeeze momentum sling shot to complete the task.
Today we got the XLF breakout above the range, the exact area I've been waiting for since July to add to FAZ and after closing FAZ August 1, the exact area I've been waiting for to re-open the position.
Look at the momentum from the head fake/bear trap to the short squeeze that finally gave XLF the momentum needed to break above the range, which in this scenario, (a very weak XLF which couldn't break above the range when it was inside it and much closer) means XLF is very weak for these kinds of tactics to have to be used, but this is what the head fake moves are all about.
See the two links on the members' site, "Understanding the Head Fake Move", they are predictable, they are easy set-ups which can be forecasted weeks and in this case, nearly a month in advance.
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