Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Z Position Update

The Z trade entered Monday, Trade Idea: (Short Term Option) Z saw a break below short term support yesterday, it also broke below the 50-day moving average, I'm not so sure this was a head fake move as much as a "Buy the Dip" signal as I've been looking at volume and while there was an increase in volume (red) on the break below, it wasn't huge. In any case, Z is looking pretty good so far today , +2.69% so far.

 Z daily. Longer term I think Z is getting in to some trouble and the end of this move to the upside likely provides an interesting short opportunity. I showed charts Monday in which several concepts that precede a top were present in Z as well as longer term (trend) underlying trade deteriorating badly. Although this is not part of my analysis, I also don't see the value in one company which makes no profits, in an industry that's going and about to really go down the tubes (as rates are hiked), buying another profitless company for about 15% more than they agreed upon the day before (Trulia).

In any case, the white arrow is where the trade idea was put out on Monday and today we are moving in the right direction.

 This is the short term support, although the 50-day moving average was clearly more visible and important. Yesterday's dip below the 50-day was accumulated as you can see on the 1 min intraday above.

Here's a closer view of the same chart yesterday.

The trend from downside 3C confirmation to a leading positive divegrence should be very clear, I hate to ruin a good divergence with arrows and boxes.

 And the 5 min from a negative at the recent all-time highs to a leading positive as Z's downside price ROC started to fall-off.

I especially like Z above and beyond a simple market following bounce, it has a strong 15 min chart and I think it would have bounced with or without the market.

For now there's not much to be done except let the trade work.

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