Tuesday, September 30, 2014

A.M Update

OVernight the theme has been bad news is good news with China's HSBC Manufacturing data missing, then Japanese Household spending, wages and Industrial Production missed. Following that Europe saw the lowest inflation data in 5 years with Core CPI sliding. This was all spun as bullish, all along the lines of each country or region's Central banks needing to take more stimulative measures even though each is a unique situation and in certain cases has already been ruled out.

This sent Index Futures higher overnight which was not out of line with last night's Daily Wrap and yesterday's data with an expectation of a push for the best close possible on the last day of Q3.

Then around 9 a.m. EDT futures started sliding as Russia is said to be weighing the use of Capital Controls if net outflows that have been exacerbated by EU and US sanctions (in a country that hasn't seen net inflows since 2007) continue to intensify, this immediately put the brakes on the overnight ramp hopes of more Kool-Aid stimulus. 

 ES 1 min overnight and in to the open sliding on Russia Capital Controls news...

As mentioned yesterday, my minimum divergence for a trade is at least a 5 min futures chart, note no positive divegrence here of any significance at all.

 The ES 15 min chart is the same, 3C is either confirming downside or putting in negative divegrence at counter trend bumps.

And the 30 min chart that shows 1 small relative positive at yesterday's opening lows.

Just as an aside, the Rubble vs the $USD is at the lower end of the band in which Russia's central bank would intervene. 

Right now there aren't any divergences of note in the averages, however, the lateral range could create some opportunities, there are still a number of indicators and assets to look at as a.m. trade burns off, but so far I still don't see anything that has enough gas to do much more than try to get the best close for the end of the quarter today, as far as a Wednesday or early Q4 bounce, that divergence isn't there. Today is the last day of Q3 and window dressing.

TICK is in a very narrow +/- 750 band. I don't expect any significant intraday moved any time very soon.

I'll have some other information up now that the a.m., fog is burning off.

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