There have been a couple of more dramatic negative shifts in some of the averages, but my opinion in the last post was based largely on concepts that have shown to be high probabilities and HYG, the concepts are what they are and I don't see deterioration on the scale in HYG yet, that would give up market support.
None of the carry (JPY based) trades are connected to or are supporting the market at all.
AUD/JPY vs ES/SPX futures...
Total disconnect as AUD/JPY heads higher and Es lower, this is in line with intraday TICK data / market breadth.
HYG (red) continues to remain supportive of the SPX/market broadly short term.
The MSI is drifting lower with the market, although outperforming, it's not lifting anything.
Price tone in most of the averages is in line with the cautious intraday breadth/TICK although we did see a panic move to the downside at -1200 which is not that bad vs some of the historic intraday lows seen over the last week or two.
based on this move forecasted Friday for early in the week, pre-FO_M_C, the TICK/SPY custom indicator shows a natural rate of deterioration, there's only si much gas in the tank on a 1-day divergence and without outside influence, this would and may continue to deteriorate on pace with the size of Monday's positive divegrence.
SPY 5 min is looking a bit worse than anticipated since earlier charts this morning.
We did see a strong leading negative move out of character with the leading negative divegrence at the red arrow, pretty much specific to the SPY.
The 1 min intraday SPY chart shows a small intraday positive divegrence which we have seen some support from.
The QQQ intraday 1 min shows stronger intraday support.
While the IWM seems to be seeing heavier profit taking.
Still it is the HYG divegrence that matter most at this point and it's just not seeing rapid deterioration.
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