UNG/UGAZ Update

We're still holding UGAZ (3x long Nat. Gas) and it still looks like an excellent trade to the upside, not even getting in to UNG's longer term trend which looks bullish as well.

I received an email from a member who saw Cramer predicting of all things, a head fake move believe it or not in UNG, a break below the July 28/29 tweezer bottom support before, HEADING HIGHER. Yes, I'm sure Cramer knows all about these head fake moves/stop runs (in this situation) as a Goldmanite.

UNG's range is so well defined, a head fake move below the range wouldn't surprise me, in fact I'd expect it, however it seems over the years of watching these they are much more prone to show up in equities than global commodities which are not so easily manipulated as a single stock, however, while it's a possibility, I don't have any current objective data that suggests it's a high probability at this time.

What we do have since it has been a while since the last UNG / UGAZ (long) update are the following...

 This is the daily range/base and the support that Cramer is talking about is late July near the start of the range, it's $20.59 to the penny, apparently the head fake move he predicted last night followed by a strong move up so I suppose it could happen, it would be a conceptual probability from our perspective, but I just don't have the data showing it to be a current probability although I'll set price alerts as any move lower in UNG in my view is worth accumulating long.

 The last divergence in the Ultimate Oscillator, like Wilder's RSI, just with fewer false signals based on 3 moving averages. The last divegrence was a bit bigger, not as sharp and not as much time in the lower price accumulation zone. The current divegrence is sharper, has spent more time in the lower end of the range or accumulation zone and I suspect the next move up in UNG may lead to the long term primary trend breakout which the last move failed to accomplish, in essence, on a primary trend it would be a large stage 2 mark-up trend so I do view this as a long term swing trade to start and if it proves itself, a long term trend trade.

 We expected UNG to fall from this range and had some DGAZ positions (3x short Nat Gas), however since it has put in a nice base with a large 60 min leading positive divegrence.

 The 5 min chart has a nice divgerence and no sign of the kind of negative divgerence