GLD Follow Up

The Put options in GLD were opened Monday October 20th, Trade Idea (Options) GLD PUT. After just closing them out, the P/L looks like this...

With a fill at $3.10 and a cost basis of $2.30, the P/L was nearly +35% for the position which is fine, I used the puts because I'm not crazy about the GLD leveraged ETF choices.

The $USD, which I covered in some detail this morning in the USO Update (Crude) update, has been moving down since the open, as if the market is expecting a dovish F_O_M_C which wouldn't be surprising given they are likely ending QE with no press conference, so I'd assume they'd have to put something dovish in the statement to counter the end of QE as well as the probability that the "DOTS" have moved up again as has been the trend the last several meetings.

$USD 1 min moving down since the cash open and as the USO update showed, it's likely the $USD sees further downside which is what the F_E_D has wanted as well the past month.

 The 30 min GLD chart shows a small positive divegrence on a head fake move below support before moving higher in to distribution and a top on 10/21, the day after we entered the GLD puts so I'm pleased with the timing of the entry and generally speaking it looks like gold has more downside to go, but I can always re-enter the GLD put/short, I don't see the need to risk decent gains here.

The 15 min chart shows the same thing, accumulation/positive divergence in to a head fake low under support with a move up that was sold in to... distribution/negative divegrence. The 15 min chart also suggest more GLD downside in the near future, however the last several days of flat trade with a drop this morning below that small range looks a little like a short term base and head fake below it/stop run for a possible small bounce and with the $USD acting the way it is, why put the gains at risk when the trade can be re-entered?

Very short term charts show some positive activity, again if anything, seemingly along the lines of a small bounce which would work great as a new put/short entry.

The 5 min chart as well.

So for now, I'll be a spectator here and look for the next entry. I hope you did ok with the position.