Market Update

I've been looking at numerous assets in numerous timeframes, probably close to 200 charts by now, I don't see anything that looks like an F_O_M_C smoking gun.

TICK is very dull, it looks like you might expect considering yesterday and considering what's coming an hour from now.

 Early orders from pre-market or last night from retail on technical buy signals like price above the 50, 100 or 200 day moving averages seems to have taken place this morning looking at TICK, this isn't surprising as most longs in retail tend to get in toward the end and get left holding the bag. However, no trend has developed through the day, which isn't surprising on an F_O_M_C day.

 Right now TF and ES have some intraday 1 min positive divegrences, NQ doesn't so a little move to the upside pre-F_O_M_C looks probable.

The 5 min charts haven't been effected at all, still leading negative like TF above

As far as my original theory that the market had enough gas to pullback to the October lows and put in a "W" base and another bounce, it's looking less and less probable as the 60 min SPY divergence right now is larger than the positive at the October lows.

 Intraday, SPY 1 min shows early distribution on what I suspect were the overnight/pre-market orders that working folk put in, which is one of the reasons a lot of professional traders won't look at the market until after 10:30-11 a.m. as there's just a lot of game playing like orders being filled high and taken down to hit stops. You can see a small positive intraday just like the Index futures on this SPY 1 min chart.

 The Q's which didn't have a 1 min Index future positive seem to be seeing heavier intraday action as this 2 min chart is leading at a new low.

The 1 min IWM looks like the TF chart with a small intraday positive divergence pre F_O_M_C. I want to keep an eye on these as they may be indicative of a pre-palnned knee jerk move, I doubt a leak though.

And the IWm 5 min is seeing heavier distribution as well so again nothing that looks unusual.

The one possible soking gun is the VIX futures...

This 5 min VIX futures chart is flying (3c) and it joins the longer 15, 30, 60 min charts. Often with longer charts already in place, we roll back to the shorter intraday charts for timing which if this wasn't an F_O_M_C day, I'd say we are seeing, especially with the shape of price, the rounding over earlier in the week and the "Chimney" yesterday. At this stage I should assume this is pre-F_O_M_C hedging, but that doesn't  change the 60 min positive in VIX futures now, that's much longer and larger than F_O_M_C hedging.

I'm going to keep looking ...