Monday, October 13, 2014

Market Chart Update

Now that we've made the low that the SPX/RUT Ratio indicator was calling for, the next thing we were looking for is leading indicators and 1-5 min timeframes to both go positive. The other thing, in my view is the head fake/stop run on Friday below the lows of the August cycle is a bit too much of a "V" shaped reversal, it's an event rather than a reversal process so I would expect prices to come down intraday while these positive divergences build in to a pullback.

For example...
 This 30 min chart of the SPY shows our base or reversal area, the "Igloo with a chimney", except the mirror opposite or flipped upside down. The head fake area looks too sharp, that's why I think prices come back down and widen that area out which also gives divergences a chance to build, but I doubt we get much more than that. If we were to get a new low , that's likely where I'd enter cal options, so long as we confirm the low is being accumulated first, but I'd say the chances are very high it would be.

 You can watch the NYSE intraday TICK for signs of a downside reversal as the TICK breaks below today's channel on a 1 min chart.

HYG as mentioned earlier is building a 3C positive divegrence so it will support the bounce, but it's not yet out to 5 mins so I suspect we'll see that pullback to give these time to accumulate.

 SPY has repaired out to the 3 min chart already, leading positive, not the 5 min yet though, another reason for a pullback intraday or before we get a move to the upside.


 SPY 5 min chart

 IWM 1 min is showing some intraday signs of a pullback...

It has repaired the 3 min...

And is working on the 5 min now.

QQQ 1 min also suggesting an intraday pullback 1 min

And has repairs moving out to 5 mins so we are getting what we expected... It's a matter of timing at this point.

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