Trade Idea (Swing+) GLD / UGLD & GDX Update

I'm going to go ahead and open a partial (50%) long GLD position, actually I'll be using the 3x leveraged UGLD (3x long gold). Gold and GDX (gold miners) which I am VERY interested in for a NUGT (3x long GDX) entry, typically have a very tight correlation, we've even noticed some of the pre-F_E_D intervention correlation reestablishing itself in which gold miners use to lead gold before the F_E_D's money printing caused gold to soar and end the miners leading correlation of years ago.

First lets look at gold generally...

 First, the 60 mi chart of gold futures with a large leading positive divegrence.

 Next, gold futures 30 min chart with a sharp leading positive just as the quarter ends, it takes a lot to move a chart this long this far and this fast, so it seems that something (which we have expected recently with numerous signals coming in) is going on with gold, and especially right after the quarter ended

 Here's GLD's daily trend, the downtrend is being broken by the typical base forming lateral trend, it's easier to see on an intraday chart.

On this 60 min chart the turn from down to lateral is more visible and this is the area we typically see bases being built, plus we have been getting small positive signals over the last few weeks which is why I have recently been talking about gold and perhaps GDX, being close to a position entry.

This is GLD's 30 min chart, you can see why we expected a pullback much sooner than we actually got with this negative divegrence in June/July, this is also the same type of divegrence that caused us to exit our first NUGT long at a 40 & 50% gain on July 9th, right as it was breaking out, it was a perfect exit as we didn't leave anything on the table as a lateral trend developed right after that. The negative divergences caused me to expect a pullback in which we'd be able to enter a new NUGT long for a longer term trade than the previous one as I suspect there's something going on here that will cause GDX to enter a primary uptrend , you'll see below.

 GLD's 15 min chart has an odd look to it being leading positive that long, but as I go through other timeframes, they show the same divergence early on. I suspect a large gold position has been accumulated which would make sense as far as our forward looking expectations are concerned on both gold and miners.

 For instance this 5 min GLD chart shows the same early positive divegrence and a stronger leading positive as price has turned sideways from the preceding pullback.

 I'm entering a partial position here because I may look for a slightly better entry to add to UGLD or , as I'd prefer, I'll take the other 50% set aside for a NUGT/GDX long entry which would be my preferred trade. I don't want two full size positions (gold and gold miners) as they are so closely correlated so in essence, the second half of this position may very well be for a NUGT long.

As you can see, the GDX base is over a year long with a huge leading positive 60 min divegrence as well as longer timeframes. You can see the neckline; we exited  NUGT on the first day price broke through the neckline and as you can see that was the right call as price turned lateral for months before finally pulling back as initially expected.

 There are a lot of assets I use to confirm GDX signals, Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) are one of several, you can see the 15 min chart here is leading positive after the confirmed pullback trend.

DUST, the 3x short Gold miners) is another of the assets I use to confirm which should be showing negative divergences if GDX is positive which it does above on this 60 min chart as well as below...

 On a closer, near term signal 5 min chart.

The one issue I have with a GDX entry or NUGT long entry at this moment, is I don't believe the base area is wide enough yet or mature enough yet. I'll give it a few more days and keep an eye on it as I would like the second half of the position to be NUGT long, I suspect with a little patience it will give us a more stable base, capable of supporting the kind of real breakout move GDX needs to move to stage 2 mark up in a primary bull trend.

For now, I'll be opening the UGLD long at 50% full position size.