Friday, November 14, 2014

A.M. Update

Good morning.

Yesterday's late day positive divergences had looked to be more about op-ex than anything, getting the market to where it usually opens on Friday, right at Thursday's close and pins there for most of the day until about 2 p.m.

I posted a lot of charts all in the 1 min range that looked like this late yesterday...
With 3C, the closing divergence is typically where price action picks up on the next open, today, however after looking everything over, it's hard to say that divergence was not just a late day run to green and VWAP.

Either way, this morning the market looks like it is most likely to be pinned, index options look like the following ES chart...
 nearly perfectly in line, not suggesting any major movement.

Almost every chart looks the same. It looks like there may be some later USD/JPY weakesss building in, but not quite yet
Technically the USD/JPY is divergent here, but the $USD made a sharp move higher and I'd give it some time to let 3C catch up before calling this divergent, but from the looks of things, that may be the last sharp move up of the day before at least a downward correction in the currency pair.

Watch for more volatile action around 2 p.m., even though the opening volatility/reversal is quite common, this is a boring Friday op-ex max pain pin, at least until 2 p.m. unless there's a bunch of call contracts at these levels , then things may be interesting. I'm expecting a dull morning by the looks of futures charts.

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