For a 3rd consecutive day, VIX and VIX short term futures are outperforming the SPX correlation, this clearly implies there's a strong bid under VIX futures, normally I might say it's hedging, but it's hard to believe that when the VIX futures themselves are nearly off the chart as you'll see below, and SKEW's recent moves look like it's upside ROC is about to change to the much more volatile (Tail Risk).
VIX trending up and clearly outperforming the correlation with SPX (green with inverted price so you can see the normal 1:1 correlation).
VIX short term futures also outperforming, you can see yesterday's late day (last minute) slam of VIX to get the Dow and SPX green (+0.007% and +0.07% respectively), seems pretty desperate.
While VIX futures
(I'm losing the left side history, but there was a negative divegrence in to VIX futures highs mid October at market lows) are putting in an even larger divegrence at a new leading high, this does not look like hedging.
There also seems to have been a more desperate move to accumulate VIX Futures since last Friday through this week, not just from the above, but from the 30 min chart below.
This looks like someone has incentive to get moving on getting a position finished up.
near term you can see HYG's desperate pump in to yesterday's close giving the SPY Arbitrage about a $.60 cent SPY leverage which was the difference between a red and green close. HYG has fallen out today, but the most important signals for HYG (High Yield Corporate Credit) are on longer charts.
As per the October cycle...
HYG in blue vs SPX in green, that's trouble. HYG led the August cycle to the far left in white by about 7 days if you recall right from the lows and also led it to the downside and stage 4 decline to a new lower SPX low. This dislocation is sharped than the August cycle's.
However the really important HYG chart is the one below, especially looking at the SPX as a Broadening Top...
HYG 60 min through 2013 in line and 2014 making primary trend lower lows and lower highs. I haven't seen an occasion where HY Credit and Equities tangle and HY Credit doesn't come out on top as the leader, perhaps that's why the saying "Credit leads, stocks follow" is so common.
Intraday earlier in the
A.M. Update I had posted,
"My initial take is that there are enough positive divergences in the Index futures to at least try for a gap fill and the yen looks as if it could pullback, bouncing the USD/JPY which is sitting above the 115 level."
It turns out the A.M pre-market Indications were right on, but also right on 1 min charts, intraday in meaning, not strong trending charts.
The USD/JPY is supporting SPX Futures as can be seen below...
USD/JPY(candlesticks) pushing higher just after the US cash open and ES (purple) getting some support from the move.
The charts in premarket that suggested this was the most likely outcome in to the open were the $USDX and Yen currency futures themselves on 1 min charts.
The Yen took a dive just after the US open as the negative intraday 3C chart suggested and the $USDX...
Advanced just after the cash open.
However as also posted in the A.M. Update, there's a roof on this move at the 7 min chart where $USDX is in line on a larger downside trend and the Yen is leading positive.
The other support is coming from the 30 year yield as it gapped lower as our best guess using TLT inverted yesterday (as the bond market was closed) implied.
30 year rates (red) vs SPX (green) intraday today. The 5 and 10 year yields are much less exuberant and not leading like the 30 year's reversal around the European close.
This makes the 30 year bond futures and TLT a key asset today in intraday trade, I'll update those on their own as fast moving charts tend to be stales by the time these larger posts get out.
TICK DATA REMAINS VERY STALE AGAIN TODAY IN AN EVEN TIGHTER RANGE OF +750/-250.
NOT MUCH MOVING ANYWHERE.
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