Market Update - USD/JPY & IWM

First off USD/JPY is losing support already which was to be expected as signals at the a.m. update were in the 1 min range.

However first last night I was talking about the increased chances of an Igloo top/Chimney head fake. I said last night the following...

"The August cycle's Igloo/Chimney top and the sharp "V" bottom, I have suspected we'd see symmetry in the top with a shaper downside reversal, likely a big gap down day, but the concept has been right about 80% of the time, even though this "V" bottom was one of the times in the 20% in which the reversal was more an event than process.

The IWM looks to be the most at risk for such a move because of its base."

And the support zone being so clear...

The psychology is simple, "Keep the bulls enaged", that's hard to do when price is sliding which is pronbably the reason why these head fake moves or Igloo tops with a chimney, chimney being the head fake move , make such excellent timing indications as the bulls are once again engaged, doubts about rounding or sliding price thrown to the wind, thus the need for a fast transition to stage 4 decline  and thus the reason these moved tend to make such good timing markers.

Also discussed in last night's post was symmetry, the market )(except for the IWM) took off on a rare "V" bottom rather than a wider base, there's often symmetry in tops/bottoms, this is why I was up in the air about a head fake concept that has proven itself to be about 80% while the bottom was one of the few times in the 20%. Head fake moves tend to be larger, more convincing, but for a market I'm not even convinced has the same 80% probability because of bottom/top symmetry, ,it's a coin toss on the concept, not the direction of resolution of the market though.

Perhaps the USD/JPY is giving us part of the answer.

There's a sharp leading negative divergence in the pair...

 USD/JPY intraday which has been market support with a sharp leading negative.

Just like this morning, confirmation was from the $USDX and Yen currency futures.

 The $USD has seen rapid deterioration intraday and the other side of the pair...


 The Yen is seeing a positive building.

 The TICK Index continues to trend lower and deteriorate with larger volatility building in recently/

While the 3C intraday charts of 30 year Treasuries suggesting an upside move have seen yields turn down and the SPX with them above (yields red/SPX green).