Friday, November 28, 2014

Pre-Market Indications

Good morning, I hope everyone's holiday/Thanksgiving and/or day off was relaxing and peaceful, let Black Friday craziness begin!

For the moment I'm just going to cover the futures indications which are slightly firmer, but relatively flat 3C wise as Europe remains in the red, but off the worst levels of the day on inflation or lack of... data and Italian unemployment joining France at record highs, but what will reverberate across the markets more than anything causing a spate of high yield defaults in the shale oil drillers space is OPEC's decision to leave quota's unchanged, leaving oil prices lower than shale drillers can afford to compete with as Saudi Arabia seeks to squash the US oil source. Look for increasing shale driller defaults along with drops in HY Credit which many are leveraged with.

As for the averages...

 ES, notably flat, not very volatile looking...

 TF with small negative divergences, also not very volatile looking.

 And NQ off the lows overnight with 2 small negative divergences.

The driver...
USD/JPY with a stronger dollar on a weaker Euro after the Italian unemployment and Euro-area soft data inflation at 5 year lows.

More on that momentarily..

The big news is oil, Brent Crude after OPEC's decision to leave output unchanged...

This is the market mover for now with the FTSE down only .16% now after paring losses with oil leading the way lower, Shell and BP represent 12% of the FTSE 100's market weight, that's where all weakness has come from , the oil space.

The US session ends at 1  pm and as of now looks to be tame and quiet.

More in a moment.

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