The charts keep piling up as they did Friday, MondayTuesday and Wednesday.
here's an EXCELLENT depiction of how a head fake move works and is confirmed via the IWM's range.
This is the intraday strength that the IWM exhibits, this makes me thing it's probablke that the IWM starts Monday neutral to somewhat positive, even though it was showing a relative negative divgerence the last two hours of the day (since 2 p.m. through the close), but otherwise the intraday chart was in line which is what IWM needed to do, although the close still wasn't what I had in mind for a move above the range, I was looking more for a clean breakout above the range that was unquestionable.
This daily IWM closing chart...
Does leave some questions as yesterday was a Hanging Man candlestick and today is a Doji star, off the highs. A candle like Wednesday's pushing clear through the top of the range was more what I envisioned, but perhaps this week's relative performance is just as good.
After the intraday chart which was clearly being propped up for this move, you can see very clearly distribution on the next timeframe at 2 min as well as earlier accumulation before Wednesday's move.
This is exactly what I wanted to see.
Adding the range and a 5 min chart, you can see the Crazy Ivan shakeout (2 head fake moves), the first below and notice as price moves below, any short sellers are caught in a bear trap and then short squeeze, we confirm these head fake moves by the divegrence and this was accumulated on the break below the range Monday and Tuesday.
Likewise, the break above the range shows distribution setting the bull trap, the same concepts of momentum play out in this head fake move, just instead of a short squeeze above the stop level (usually inside the range), it's a landslide of stops as price moves below the range, effectively increasing supply and when you alter the supply/demand dynamic with more supply from stops being hit, you get the same momentum as a short squeeze, just in reverse (down),
this is why we say "Failed moves produce fast reversals".
Again we can confirm the head fake move by the lack of breakout 3C confirmation, instead it's distribution.
The 10 min IWM chart shows the exact same head fake (Crazy Ivan) concept with the move below the range attracting short sellers and hitting stops in to accumulation of the supply and a break above the range with distribution as demand picks up on buyers or what's left of a short squeeze.
The concept was so strong, we could forecast last Friday that this move would be a head fake (meaning we can confirm the distribution of the move above which doesn't even start until it moves above).
And the 15 min chart showing the in line weakness of the range, thus it needed the head fake move below and the help of levers like HYG to get it started and the short squeeze to take over. The concept now is the same for a downside move, just in reverse as a 15 min chart confirming in 2 days is pretty impressive.
And the entire October cycle with a 60 min chart from accumulation which we saw over a week before the lows were hit and clear stage 3 top distribution with it worsening in to the head fake move this week.
Quickly, here's the Q's
1 min leading negative suggests early weakness next week, likely right off the open Monday.
QQQ 2 min
Strong signals at QQQ 5 min leading negative
And QQQ 10 min
SPY 1 min from in line today (part of the max-pain pin and late day distribution with TICK confirmation.
SPY 5 min from this week's accumulation to distribution
And the SPY 10 min
With probabilities that really give you the short term probability outcome, 30 min SPY.
SPY 30
I'll post more later... So far, so good.
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