Quick Closing Update

Today looks like a transition day. As you know we had negative divergences going in to the close Friday suggesting we'd have a negative Monday which did not start out that way because of overnight futures action, but as soon as the opening bell rang, we ended up where we left off, with lower prices and a very interesting break below the IWM's 6 + week trading range, the very day we expect something to happen that possibleCrazy Ivan head fake move is put in.

While it's not broadly apparent, today seems to be a transition between last week's very negative signals and perhaps accumulating near the lows of the IWM's range with a daily candle closing on higher volume, and while not a bullish reversal, certainly off the lows.

It looks like the start of a Crazy Ivan dual shakeout of both sides of the range to end as expected.

I'll be putting charts up, but there was nothing to do today beyond trade management, other wise it's patience until there are enough probabilities to either make a long piggy back speculative trade worth it or to wait for a move higher and short in to it with a long piggy back trade not worth the risk. The highest probability trade here is shorting in to price strength and some very odd things have happened today in VIX and other assets that suggest we are on the right track. After over 30 trading days of RUT range bound trade, the day after we put forth out thesis on what the IWM will do, it starts what appears to be a Crazy Ivan shakeout, it didn't even come close over the last 30+ days, but as soon as it starts to become a more obvious probability, three it is.

Charts and the Daily wrap will follow.

For now I'd maintain the oil long/call position and keep core shorts in place.

Today does look a lot like a transition as there's a reversal PROCESS, not an event , than must take p;lace, Today appeared to be a part of that process, especially when assets are accumulated below a range's support for a momentum move, it's typically more than a single day, just look at the XLF example provided earlier today.