Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Watch that TICK

Intraday any way, as I think this strength is a nice entry in to whatever shorts you may be looking at.

ES, TF and especially NQ (S&P, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 futures) are all going negative/deeper negative intraday as the SPY approaches a gap fill. The NYSE intraday TICK is testing the bottom trendline for today's channel dangerously, it may slip below any minute so if you are looking for a tactical entry on a strategic position, this will be enormously helpful.

Remember, this move to fill the gaps is largely based on a short squeeze, remember the leading indicators, breadth, underlying trends and how much damage the market sees on bad news as I mentioned last night, less than half of all NYSE stocks are above their 200-day moving average which in very informal terms is a way to differentiate between a bull and bear market, it's not Dow Theory, but you'll be surprised how close of a proxy it is.

The Chinese move overnight is sucking $80 billion in liquidity out of the market, that collateral that has been used to fund trades is no longer usable and as such there's massive de leveraging as well as Carry trade unwinds, just look at the USD/JPY which broke $118 today!

An intraday short squeeze to make it to gap fills for the market's middle men is a far cry from the market's trends alone not to mention the tightening by the Chinese C/B and equities clearing agency.

In other words, don't get lost in the lines or miss the forest for the trees, use the market's gifts to your advantage.

No comments: