GLD Charts

I moved out of a GLD position not too long ago at a very small gain, just because the near term charts were all over the place. Gold is "typically" bought as a hedge on inflation "EXPECTATIONS", as you might have picked up from the F_O_M_C, "they" expect inflation to move toward their long run goal of 2%, but acknowledge near term inflation expectations are not so hot.

In fact they also said that they'd raise rates at the current 1.4% inflation which is below their target, so long as they felt reasonably sure that inflation would move toward their target.

I may be getting off track a little, but Bloomberg just reported that Yellen just said (as posted in the A.M. Update today),

"Yellen has signaled she wants to look past short-term market fluctuations and place economic outlook at center of policy making; to succeed, she must wean investors from the notion that the Fed will bail them out if their bets go bad"

This is an interesting statement or message because taken with the F_O_M_C minutes and press conference, it was clear that Yellen is looking to raise rates sooner than later and the 2% inflation target not having been met has been rebuffed with the F_O_M_C's willingness to hike rates at current inflation levels of 1.4%, below their long-run target, as long as they feel reasonably assured  inflation will move toward their target (which is a subjective statement and definition that can be used however one pleases, so long as they preface any action with the words "They feel reasonably sure" despite data). Additionally now we have this new "Big picture perspective" from the Bloomberg piece/quote above and warning that the F_E_D does NOT have traders' backs as they have believed for a long time and continue to. This is along the lines of Yellen's, "We keep telling the market what we are going to do, if they don't listen, I wash my hands of it", except this is even more straight forward, we are proceeding, you are responsible for your trades, don't expect us to bail you out (RAMP THE MARKET).

In any case, one issue is the F_E_D's subjective definition of what their inflationary outlook is and that's whatever they say it is and the other issue is the actual inflation data which doesn't look very inflationary right now. Note I said "right now". Who knows what the ECB does, how they do it and what it turns in to, Japan's QE  hasn't exactly done what they expected on the inflationary front.

These are really just asides to the charts which is the reason for the position and post.

 GLD's 15 min chart which is along the lines of a swing trade and then some. Whatever events have transpired, it appears there's a negative cycle set up on this 15 min chart.

Gold futures show something very similar. Note I'm not getting in to longer term charts or forecasts yet, which I suspect will be long term bullish, but the data just isn't clear yet and there are too many wild cards that can move thing either way for a period or indefinitely.

 YG/Gold futures 10 min negative as well.

The 5 min chart shows a [positive / accumulation cycle and a negative distribution in to it recently.

As far as the timing charts now that we have a cycle set up...

This is GLD's 2 min leading negative

YG intraday is showing a negative divegrence on a parabolic move higher intraday.

And the 1 min timing chart (in this instance) is clearly negative in to GLD's gap higher, which on a daily chart is looking like a possible closing Star, Doji Star or maybe Shooting star, the volume surge is in place which would make any of those reversal candlesticks about 4 time more effective and probable than average volume. THIS IS ALSO RIGHT IN TO THE 200-DAY M.A.