Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Leading Indicators- Second Verse Same as the First...

So after looking at Leading Indicators, a lot of the deterioration I was documenting yesterday and last night in the Daily Wrap, continues today.

Again, I can't say at this point this is enough to change short term expectations, but at best, it's not helpful in any way I can conceive.

Lets just dive in...

 The same SPX:RUT Ratio (red) indicator that has been showing deterioration since the VIX Term Structure Buy signal (White painted on price bars and below) is again showing non-confirmation and more deterioration today.

The VIX TS buy signal is not failed, it has been several days early in the past and the SPX:RUT put in a positive signal in to the bottom area where the VIX TS gave a buy signal. It is just that today we see a continuation of yesterday's weakness and weakness that started developing before that.

While the SPX:RUT Ratio is a specific indicator performing a specific function, you can get the same net result with Wilder's RSI such as the chart above on a daily showing divergences/sell signals at both areas in the yellow boxes and a positive divegrence in the area of the Descending Triangle I've posted several times as a perfect head fake price pattern and set up.

A closer look at the same RSI on a 10 min chart shows the same positive at the triangle lows and a negative in to recent movement higher.

And on an even faster 5 min chart you can see the negative signal today specifically. Stochastics as well as ACD or any Oscillator used in divergence mode rather than overbought/oversold, should give roughly the same signals.

It appears that HYG (High Yield Corporate Credit), one of the most popular levers for ramping a market, has been trying to stem the afternoon price decline and looks like it may have, but this may tell us that higher prices were aggressively sold in to , thus the need for HYG as a ramping mechanism.

When looking at HYG's intraday 1 min 3C chart, you can see a positive divegrence as if they were trying to use HYG to stem afternoon downside, which could suggest (a few things),  that they want to get this bounce off, however there's significant selling pressure on any price strength. Thus HYG may have been used to keep the base from falling apart with a deeper downside move.

The intraday roundtrip volatility similar to yesterday is also worth noting.

Again, not all, but one of the HY Credit assets I use most continues for another day to register negative. This is not across all HY assets I look at and that's why I'm not making a big deal of it , but it is notable.

And pro sentiment is falling for a second day which is notable because it has been such a strong leader both in to negative moves and positive ones.

We still don't have a smoking gun and this may all be a wash, but the trends of mild deterioration continue.



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