Morning Update

After looking through futures, there are two things standing out, one expected, one not so much expected. The 5 min ES/SPX futures and NQ/NDX futures now have clear positive divergences on them, the 5 min TF/RUT not so much, but it is still positive.

The $USD doesn't look so hot here and looks like it will lose ground on both 1 and 5 min charts where the Euro is strong, which makes some sense from the chart's standpoint, this means the carry pair likely to run is EUR/JPY for our market bounce. The end effect here is the same.

 ES 5 min which was not positive like this yesterday.

NQ 5 min, also not positive like this yesterday.

The $USDX 5 min still looks bad on the 5 min chart and should move lower.

The Euro's 5 min chart is positive and looks to move higher this would mean it's likely that EUR/USD moves up and causes more $USD weakness and with the Yen slightly negative at 5 min...

The USD/JPY should stagnate in the very near term while the EUR/JPY takes over as the carry pair correlation of choice.

Not much has changed with our oversold bounce scenario, we were about as near term oversold as you can get yesterday ion top of Friday's so seeing 3 of the 4 major averages green already isn't surprising.

I'm guessing this will run in to the F_O_M_C minutes release at 2 p.m. tomorrow, after that, all bets are off , but I think we'll start to see some 3C underlying reaction before we get to the minutes release, I can't imagine they'll contain anything bullish as a "couple" of meetings and maybe earlier , depending on data with a 5% GDP, doesn't sound like the minutes could possibly help the market, but that's a wild card and just a guess. Until then, we'll watch the charts for guidance and opportunities. Nothing has changed on that front wither, I'd still use strength in price to short or sell in to, the probabilities are just too heavily skewed in that direction.

More on the way...