Thursday, February 26, 2015

AAPL Position Management

AAPL is most definitely a market bellwether so the fact it formed an Igloo with Chimney rounding top/head fake move with the major averages is important, you'll find the market tends to move together a lot more than you'd expect, in fact the S_E_C itself estimates that 2/3rds of any given stock's direction on any given day is directly correlated to what the market is doing. In AAPL's case, that may be the opposite.

 The daily AAPL chart and the Igloo/Chimney price pattern and the reason I like it so much is once you see the head fake (Chimney) you are almost always right around the corner from the downside reversal and it makes an excellent entry, in this case short. Also note the increasing volume as traders are being stopped out on what is essentially a lower low.

 The 30 min chart, to see the divergence compare price levels and 3C levels between points A & B, 3C should make higher highs with AAPL if there's confirmation of the trend. There's also a sharp leading component in effect right now that should only get worse.

 The 5 min chart is more specific about the actual underlying action within the chimney area.

However, this is the same chart's trend. Note that in the rounding area, there's not that much price movement, it's that flat trend that makes traders start to think twice about taking gains off the table and it';s the chimney/head fake move that keeps them in.

 3 min

Intraday AAPL should bounce a bit from here, but this is nothing unusual, in fact on a macro basis did you know there are almost as many up days as down days in a bear market?

In any case, our Put position for March monthly $130's was down 20% yesterday which was actually an improvement, it's up 7% today so it should continue to see more gains which is why I prefer to buy in the money and with plenty of time, buying quality changed my entire options trading experience.

The Trend Channel stop on a closing basis for this leg of AAPL's run from 1/29 is at $126 on a close, after that, AAPL's fate should be sealed to the downside in the near term.

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