Tuesday, February 17, 2015

A.M. Update

I'll be adding a follow up-date because there's so much going on, however yesterday's Greek "No deal" EUR/USD / Index Futures decline has been largely retraced as Europe's largest derivatives market in which Euro-area bonds are traded, Eurex broke shortly before the European open, not allowing traders to capitalize off the EUR/USD decline at the time, since its reopen, most of yesterday's Greek no deal losses have been retraced, but this isn't all that surprising as a gap these days is going to be retraced one way or another, pre-market or regular market, up or down.

Here's what it looked like...
 5 min ES chart showing yesterday's sell-off on the no deal at the red arrow, the white arrow is this morning just before the European open when the Eurex market broke as the EUR/USD was heading down.

Since some data from the UK tripped EUR/GBP stops at 74 allowing the Euro to gain ground, and as such, Index futures with it.

The overall bigger picture (TF/R2K futures) on a 10 min chart shows last week's two main drivers, one of the biggest short squeezes in years last week and the VIX slam down with record CFTC spec net longs in VIX, no real accumulation or real buying other than squeezing and tripping stops in VIX, but it got the head fake move over the range done, since things haven't looked great.

This is ES this morning, it kind of does look like we may pick up where we left off when cash markets open with an intraday negative divegrence as well as the others.

a negative divergence in EUR/USD, the currency behind the round trip may be why...
EUR/USD gains since the Eurex break, but also a negative divegrence,

We'll know shortly, otherwise Index futures have looked horrible since Futures trading for the new week has started, more to come on that though and some other interesting events and data from over the weekend including the latest on the Greek drama.

No comments: