Tuesday, February 17, 2015

EUR/USD

Interestingly, the market retracing ramp in EUR/USD as the Eurex Derivatives exchange broke just before the European open and by the time it reopened the EUR/GBP tripped up stops at 74 causing a EUR buying spree and lifting Index futures to the levels of yesterday's pre-Greek no deal, have indeed done what the pre-market EUR/USD charts suggested, moved lower...
EUR/USD... closer view than the A.M. Update's larger negative divegrence (seen below) suggesting the pair see downside in to the cash open which is seeing downside in to the cash open.

The A.M. Update chart of EUR/USD with a negative divegrence...


Those same divergences in the EUR/USD are also in the Index futures as well, again, it looks like a weak gap fill which has been a staple of the market since 2009 (filling gaps consistently), whether in extended hours or regular hours and whether gaps up or down.
 ES intraday, longer charts look worse.

NQ negative intraday also as they rode EUR/USD's coattails since the EU open.

And Russell 2000 futures.

So far it looks like the Friday Week Ahead, early weakness, "Picking up where we left off" is pretty darn close to right on track, even over a 3-day weekend...
SPY's late Friday negative divergence suggesting we pick up where we left off on a more negative tone early this week as the cash markets open...

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