Early Brief

This is not going to have anything super-informative about this morning's trading action as of yet, other than the EUR/USD pair, but beyond showing it here, I'll cover currencies separately. This is more of a broad overview at this point so far.

The market does look like it's at the rounding /reversal area of what you know I believe and have believed since the base was identified and our first target was hit, to be a head fake/false breakout.

 EUR/USD losing ground on a 1 min intraday chart from overnight to present.

The 5 min EUR/USD with the breakdown in Greek talks Monday at #1 and the "Greece is going to ask for a 6 month extension" rumors yesterday at #2. The pair has given up the very minimal gains on yesterday's rumor already as of right now.

 This is a broader view of the SPY 2 min chart, I'm showing the rounding in price, the new leading negative low in 3C this morning, thus one of several reasons I believe this is the reversal process/rounding top.

I know this doesn't look like much, but that's a SPY 10 min chart and the leading negative divegrence on a chart in this timeframe is pretty serious and pretty fast, a lot of it today.

 Most of the averages intraday 1 min are choppy like the Q's above, although the Q's have AAPL really influencing them and you know how I feel about AAPL near term.

 QQQ in green vs AAPL in red so you can see AAPL is having an influence as the most heavily weighted stock on the NASDAQ 100.

 As for the Q's larger perspective, I didn't want to draw too much on the chart, but note price's rounding between the two yellow arrows and 3C's position moving down. To the far left is the last base area of Jan 29- Feb 2.

 A broader perspective of the QQQ with a 15 min chart.

One of the things I want to watch for with a range this big is whether it was accumulated as a large base for a breakout or whether it was sold in to or deteriorated, I think you can see what the 3C trend here is, thus the move above the yellow trendline would be the head fake/false breakout area, again note 3C's position relative to price to the far left.

 This is a broader view of the same chart, #1 is the failure of the market to pull off a Santa Claus rally, #2 is the failure of the market to pull off the January Effect Rally, both were forecasted in advance, that the Santa Rally would not materialize and as a result, new money would likely not be flooding the market creating the January effect, but after seeing some of the Q4 filings, it seems that this is an overly simplistic view as smart money, as 3C has been showing, has been moving out aggressively as we have seen through many areas in January. Two very recent examples from Q4/2014 filings is Appaloosa's closure of a number of positions including all of AAPL and FB, but more surprisingly, reducing their equity exposure which they had said in 2014 they had been doing for 15 months at a fund conference, by 40% in a single quarter, that's aggressive selling and Soros's $2bn SPY put position upped by 600% from the previous quarter and at its highest level since 2008 (for Soros).

 Intraday this is the only interesting chart, IWM, but it's only a 1 min chart, it's not the largest divergence, more along the lines of a bounce off intraday lows.

The IWM 5 min chart from near perfect confirmation to... Well I think it's obvious. However this is an intraday view as far as the trend view of the same chart which is part of assessing the probabilities of a head fake/false breakout...

This is the 5 min trend , the last accumulation area of any significance in December, since then, well I think it's pretty safe to say that this range has not been a large base forming area.

More as it comes in, but the main events remain Greece and the F_O_M_C minutes at 22 pm so expect volatility to pick up.

Moore in a few minutes...