Market Update/Leading Indicators

You probably saw the Index Futures update already, as for Leading Indicators, there's a strong move toward protection,  these F_O_M_C minutes from what was otherwise a hawkishly toned policy statement, have some big players worried, whether they have inside information or not (lets not forget the F_E_D did leak the minutes a day and a half ahead of schedule by email to 155 investment banks, hedge and private equity funds).

The Pro Sentiment Indicators have declined again so far today, Credit is a bit wishy-washy compared to yesterday, but a big move in Credit didn't  take place until the afternoon and many got worse in to the close.

 For a second day (perhaps even a 3rd) VIX is way outperforming the inverted SPX correlation, the move to protection is bid.

Here's the trend for VIX v SPX, the last few days which I can only assume is either the reversal process and/or the Minutes release, has definitely seen VIX outperformance.

 Yields are down today and SPX prices are in line with their reality for the most part (5y)

If commodities are once again acting as a leading indicator (they have been on the layout as they use to be until QE skewed them as the F_E_D sought to fight commodity/input cost inflation), then they are giving a bearish/negative signal vs the SPX.

 HY credit overall is already divergent.

Today's TICK has been VERY mellow, mostly between a very tame +/- 500, but a few downward spikes in to the -1300 area, an extreme.

I think these minutes are a lot more important than the market may have let on.

We'll know in less than 5 minutes.