The Week Ahead

Earlier I warned that a lot of assets were all starting to give the same signal, Quick Asset Scan,  and of course the most important macro charts for next week, Broad (cycle) Futures Update.

I can't see how the week ahead doesn't make good on the very negative charts/price patterns in this area, the usual question though is where do we start the week. 3C charts typically pick up right where they left off, you've likely seen it again and again. While the closing divergence or lack of is the most important, I'm obviously on a dead line so I'll try to get as close as I can while still getting this out.

Since you've already seen the macro trend of Index futures (negative), let me use the SPY as an example and fill in the blanks.

As for a typical op-ex Friday, you can see it in intraday breadth.

 A pretty tight intraday range until after 2 p.m., then the NYSE TICK Index explodes with activity.

As for the SPY MAcro trend on a 6 hour chart which is beyond the scope of the current cycle since February 2nd, it does show what I had expected from this move (from early February),, distribution in to a head fake move. The October low is given as a reference point.

 This 30 min chart of SPY shows a lot of strong activity recently, this week in fact which is also when a bunch of the Igloo/Chimney patterns formed.

The chart backed out to scale for this cycle looks like this, making new leading negative lows so I'd say not only from a price proportionality (the reversal process), but from a 3C proportionality (how much gas in the tank vs. what was spent), we have a net negative or likely more short sellers at the highs than simply sellers of stock and I'm not talking about retail, they get to hold the bag.

 From a timing (timeframe) perspective, the 2 min chart as shown earlier almost tells you exactly where the 4 different cycles are in effect , this chart is what I'd call "Mature" and showing the right signals at the right places, especially this week.

From an intraday 1 min chart perspective and this is where the chart picks up where it left off, there's a slight positive divergence in the afternoon decline after being negative earlier.

How this closes will depend on what I'd expect for Monday morning, at present it looks like some early strength Monday morning or picking up in the area, but I'm going to review these again right now as they have changed since capturing them.

The DIA and QQQ are in line, that would mean I'd expect them to resume weakness Monday morning, through the week I'd expect strong weakness.

The SPY has a slight positive and the IWM has a positive so there may be some relative performance difference, but this would only be in the first part of the week, Monday morning/early afternoon, etc.

The most important signals are the deeply negative ones.

I'm going to get this out and I'll add additional analysis, but I'm glad to have opened the AAPL, NFLX short /add to positions, I think they do well in to next week and beyond, but that's another story for another post.