TLT 20+ Year Bond Fund / Leading Indicator...

We look at a number of different assets because they are connected, bonds, equities, credit, yields, FX, etc.

For example, on EVERY 3C chart you can see this las t bounce's base in every asset we look at from 1/29 to 2/2, pay attention to TLT and it's 2x inverse ETF, TBT and those dates... Remember TLT is a longer term 20+ year bond fund and it moves opposite the market typically and it's yields tend to pull the market toward them as yields move opposite the bond, this is why it's one of our Leading Indicators.

*Let me say I'm still not sure of how I feel about the longer term TLT charts, they were strong through December as bonds outperformed stocks last year, but they have definitely seen their longer term signals deteriorate badly which has to do with a rate hike, but we are looking at this as a leading indicator and shorter term so we need not worry too much about it, it's just not the long that it was last year.

Note the dates 1/29-2/2, TLT was topping, negative and then rolled over as the market was basing there and then bouncing. The current leading positive divergence in TLT suggests it's ready for another turn, this time up which means long term yields should move down pressuring the broad market as well.

 This is the actual 30 year Treasury futures, also with a similar leading positive divergence as the ETF for 20+ year bonds above. I like to get multiple timeframe and multiple asset confirmation whenever possible, it's a stronger case.

TLT's 2 min trend with the distribution signal right at the market base of 1/29-2/2 and a "W" like base here, usually I'd look for a head fake/stop run just below support at the white trendline, that's where I'd consider something like TLT for a call position.

TBT-2x short 20+ year ETF), this is the inverse of TLT, TBT the 2x short, if it confirms, its signals should be positive at the late Jan. / ear.y Feb. base and negative now.

 TBT 15 min, note the base area, the exact same as the market averages and a leading negative divegrence in place now.

TBT 5 min positive at 1/29-2/2 and in line on the uptrend, negative now.

And the 2 min trend, positive at the same base area, negative at the same place now.

There's good confirmation.

I'm not a huge fan of TLT right now because of the problems with the longer term charts that weren't there when we were long TLT last year, they are now, but near term, this is acting well as a leading indicator. I suppose with some leverage it may make for a decent long (TLT) or 30 year bonds, but that's not the reason for the post.