As to mine, check the bottom of the post and there's a mystery question...
As for futures, they're right in line with the first part of the Week Ahead forecast from Friday, which is early week strength including right up to the F_)_M_C announcement on Wednesday at 2 p.m. being the SPY and QQQ had never left their bases last week and gave the market nothing to sell in to, in fact they were right in line with last week's forecast of early strength (Monday) and continuing weakness the rest of the week which they all saw except the Russell 2000 which did see distribution as it DID give the market something to sell in to. I also expect relative performance rotation out of the IWM/Russell 2000 and in to the SPY/QQQ in the first part of the week.
Futures are said to have rebounded overnight on EUR/USD strength or support after the $1.04 handle was broken and rallied off it, but I suspect this was all in the cards well in to last week and this is just more 30 second soundbite justification so people can understand why the market is doing what it is doing which is far from understanding what the market is likely to do before hand, but it gives people a sense that they have some control over the market in understanding what it is doing rather than what it will do.
Of course the main attraction this week is the F_O_M_C meeting in which it is widely expected the phrase or word, "Patient" with regard to rate hikes will be removed and every headline scanning algo has already been programmed to look for the word, "Patient".
As for the market and picking up where we left off, you already saw these charts last week, but it's worth a quick overview...
As for IWM rotation, unlike the rest of the averages for the most part...
It not only saw price strength Monday, but formed it's base starting Tuesday when we started closing down QQQ and AAPL puts and expecting a bounce and Friday when UVXY long was closed preserving a +10% gain to re-enter at better levels like the QQQ/AAPL puts.
The 10 min chart shows the base and distribution in to higher prices which is why I suspect rotation out of the IWM and in to the SPY/QQQ/DOW.
The Russell 2000 futures show the process more clearly...
In fact on an intraday 1 min basis since the new week, last week's forecast which was put out before Friday as I suspected it would look like Friday's forecast a bit earlier is seeing confirmation already in the intraday charts.
Once again, see if you can spot the odd chart out and why I suspect rotation which is not generally good among the averages (it's great among industry groups) looks so plausible...
Spot the odd chart out (10 min Index futures)
Pretty easy huh?
As for Gold and oil, well they are right where we expected them to be and getting more interesting by the day, I'll be covering these today...
As for the event of the week, I don't know how the F_E_D will defend raising rates or even removing "Patient" as even this morning's Manufacturing output fell for a 3rd consecutive month, a big miss and back to Lehman levels.
Thus if the F_E_D does hike rates, in this environment, they are doing it for a reason they have not clearly stated, something they are more worried about than what a rate hike will do to already very weak macro economic data not just in the US, but globally. I wonder what could be so scary to them?
In any case, hopefully we'll start to get more clarity as more pieces of the puzzle are revealed.
As for my weekend, I went to work with Andrea and have never seen such a massive gathering of humans...
Hint, the line of people you can probably make out upon closer inspection stretches way past the bottom side of the picture and ends where the red arrow is at the top of the picture. As far as how many people...? All I know is they hold the world record for longest congo line of some 120,000 people!
Lets get to work!
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