Wednesday, March 18, 2015

A.M. Update

Good morning.

If there was any confusion in the market with yesterday's weak Russell gain of +.20% and the Dow's relative weakness above and beyond normal at nearly 3/4 of a percent loss, then this morning's futures ad bond action has cleared that up some with an clear RISK OFF across most every risk asset possible.

This is actually pretty lose to our forecast from last Wednesday of bouncing in to the 2 p.m. F_O_M_C or thereabouts.

There still seems to be gas in the tank for QQQ and SPY, not so much for the IWM and that may be why we saw some panic selling as expected yesterday, kind of a last minute emergency fuel dump, but as I said, there's still some gas in the tank and I expect we will still see volatility both ways right through the rest of the day and probably week.

Index futures...
 ES 1 min overnight

NQ 5 min overnight, this was less a distribution process and more a distribution event, like a fuel dump.

NQ 7 min. With 5 and 7 min charts negative, I usually have the all clear to trade from the short side, but I'd like to see the divergences during the cash market hours.

 TF 10 min shows it burnt its fuel last week as we have known.

ES 10 min is about in line so that damage overnight was to the 7 min chart, again more of an event than a process.

And NQ 10 min with some gas in the tank still.

Macro data across the world has come in very shabby with European risks rising, additional US yield curve flattening and not only the Greek situation coming to a head, but austerity in general as there have been thousands of protestors outside the ECB with some violent clashes.

However, today is all about the word "Patient", we'll have to be patient, in the mean time we'll be looking for leaks as we have found at least 3 over the years as well as opportunities.

So far, we're right on track.

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